FX BANK FORECAST · COVERAGE
Aggregated year-end forecasts, scenario shifts, and curated analyst notes from 30 institutional desks. No promotion.
Live cross-firm bank consensus across 30 desks — FX, oil & gold
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US data on income and spending confirms that the US consumer has money and is prepared to spend it. There was not, perhaps, much doubt of the latter point. US living standards continuously reach new highs (at least as measured in economic terms). The personal consumer expenditure
UBS Chief Economist Paul Donovan argues the US labor market remains the critical driver of the economy, with consumers spending more and saving less to afford tariffs per the full note [source]. He sees the labor market as strong enough to sustain confidence but not strong enough to create wage pressures, dismissing wage-price spirals as unrealistic. Oil price rises are a near-term inflation perception risk, but the broader narrative supports steady consumer spending, which benefits risk assets.