US Dollar Projections Post-FOMC: Discussions on Trump Policies, BoJ and the outlook for the Yen
At a Glance
The desk anticipates a bearish outlook for the US dollar as we transition into 2025, driven by potential shifts in US fiscal policy under a Trump administration and the Bank of Japan's (BoJ) monetary stance. Per the full note from MUFG, the discussion highlights the possibility of US dollar depreciation due to these factors, particularly as the market digests the implications of the final FOMC meeting of 2024. The desk underscores that the dollar's strength is increasingly vulnerable to political developments and central bank policies, with a consensus target for EUR/USD at 1.075, reflecting a range of 1.04 to 1.12. As we look ahead, the absence of high-impact events in the next month suggests a quieter trading environment, allowing these themes to play out without immediate catalysts.
Key Takeaways
Full Analysis
What the desk is arguing
MUFG EMEA argues that the US dollar's post-FOMC rally is unsustainable and that depreciation risks are building as we enter 2025. They focus on Trump's policies, which they believe could trigger dollar weakness through fiscal deficits or trade tensions.
The desk supports this by pointing to the Bank of Japan's potential policy normalization, which could strengthen the yen and pressure the dollar. They also note that markets have already priced in aggressive Fed cuts, limiting further upside for the dollar.
Implicitly, the desk rejects the view that the dollar will remain strong due to US exceptionalism. They see the FOMC's dovish tilt and global central bank divergence as key drivers for a weaker dollar.
Where it sits in our coverage
Our consensus target for EUR/USD at December 2026 is 1.12, with a firm-wide spread of 1.04 to 1.20. This aligns with MUFG's bearish dollar view, as our target implies euro appreciation from current levels. The MUFG analysis supports our outlook that dollar strength is fading.
When we compare specific firm targets: - Goldman Sachs: targets 1.10 for EUR/USD at Dec26 - JPMorgan targets 1.15 for EUR/USD at Dec26 - Barclays targets 1.08 for EUR/USD at Dec26
Most firms in our coverage have targets above 1.08, indicating consensus that the dollar will weaken, consistent with MUFG's argument.
How other firms see it
Several major banks align with MUFG's bearish USD view. Goldman Sachs is aligned, citing similar concerns about fiscal policy and Fed easing. JPMorgan is also aligned, forecasting yen strengthening as BoJ tightens.
Contrary views exist. Bank of America is contrarian, expecting USD strength to persist due to resilient US economy and sticky inflation. They target EUR/USD at 1.04 for Mar26, reflecting a stronger dollar.
Market Implications
A weaker dollar would benefit EUR/USD longs and yen crosses. Expect increased volatility on Trump policy announcements and BoJ meetings.
From the original
In this final MUFG Global Markets Week Ahead podcast of 2024, Derek Halpenny, Head of Research Global Markets EMEA & International Securities talks to Jack Greenslade UK, Ireland & Swiss Corporate Sales about the US dollar following the final FOMC meeting of the year on Wednesday
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4 itemsFed to cut. Will the BoJ hike and take the yen stronger?
The desk anticipates a shift in market dynamics driven by potential Fed rate cuts and a possible Bank of Japan (BoJ) rate hike, which could strengthen the yen. Per the full note from MUFG EMEA, the recent US jobs report has heightened expectations for Fed easing, while BoJ Governor Ueda's recent comments suggest a readiness to adjust monetary policy, potentially in December. This dual narrative could lead to significant volatility in USD/JPY as traders recalibrate their positions in response to these central bank signals. With no high-impact events scheduled in the next 30 days, market focus will likely remain on these evolving narratives.
US dollar gains unlikely to be sustained
The desk believes that recent gains in the US dollar are unlikely to be sustained, particularly in light of the outcomes from the FOMC and BoJ meetings. Per the full note from MUFG EMEA, the discussions surrounding the BoJ's policy decisions and the potential influence of the upcoming LDP leadership election on the yen are critical. This suggests that any strength in the dollar may be short-lived as market participants reassess their positions. The desk's view is further supported by the current positioning trends and the lack of high-impact events in the near term.