Preview: ECB set to hold rates in July, hints of September hike expected: ING
The ECB appears poised to maintain its current rates during the July meeting, with market participants leaning towards a hawkish hold that anticipates a…
FX BANK FORECAST · COVERAGE
Aggregated year-end forecasts, scenario shifts, and curated analyst notes from 36 institutional desks. No promotion.
Aggregated central bank speeches and statements with LLM-generated summaries and stance scoring.
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Load more →The ECB appears poised to maintain its current rates during the July meeting, with market participants leaning towards a hawkish hold that anticipates a…
The National Bank of Hungary (NBH) is moving forward with its anticipated rate cuts, aligning with expectations set during its June meeting. Per the full note…
The US aluminium market remains constrained despite recent tariff adjustments aimed at boosting domestic production. Per the full note from ing-think, new…
The ongoing rise in business formation highlights a notable resilience in entrepreneurial activity, particularly among younger and lower-income individuals, as…
The desk supports the view of three additional 25bp Fed rate hikes in the coming months, as articulated by Aditya Bhave from BofA Global Research. The…
As outlined in the latest commentary from ING, Eurozone credit demand has proven more resilient than anticipated despite geopolitical uncertainties stemming…
The ECB is poised to maintain its current interest rates at the July meeting, despite potential hawkish nuances in communication. This event, marked by…
Per the full note [source], ING's 'What if' webinar series kicks off with a scenario where oil surges back to $120/bbl, driven by renewed US-Iran tensions and…
Lead — As oil prices extend their upward trend, the 2Y EUR swap rate has tested critical levels above 3%, reflecting a hawkish sentiment that the European…
The desk posits that ongoing weakness in the UK jobs market significantly mitigates the case for immediate rate hikes from the Bank of England (BoE). Per the…
Per the full note [source], UBS argues Trump's 50% tariff threat against Canada is largely performative, with markets discounting it due to a pattern of…
The recent commentary highlights a widening rift in sentiments towards the GBP and USD, as new PM Andy Burnham's signals about fiscal flexibility have…
Lead — Oil prices are stabilizing amidst tentative hopes for a de-escalation in US-Iran tensions, even as risks related to Saudi exports from the Red Sea…
Lead — The desk sees the emergence of the AI economy as a transformative force akin to historical technological revolutions, framing it as a pivotal driver for…
The desk asserts that front-end inflation markets will face increased pressure as geopolitical tensions, particularly in the US-Iran conflict and disruptions…
Lead — The latest report from Bank of America highlights a notable rebound in workers' financial well-being, reaching a three-year high amid ongoing…
The Czech Finance Ministry's recent cut to its government bond issuance for 2026 reflects strong retail bond demand, shifting the supply dynamics and…
The desk believes that while El Niño is a significant factor to monitor, particularly in the Asia-Pacific region, its anticipated impact on global agricultural…
The desk points to an optimistic growth outlook for Poland, bolstered by robust industrial and construction data from June, which shows a year-on-year…
The desk views the potential shifts in UK fiscal policy under newly appointed Prime Minister Andy Burnham as a critical factor influencing GBP liquidity…
Lead — The resurgence of violence in the Gulf has prompted a sharp increase in crude oil prices, presenting a potential challenge for consumers and political…
The desk posits that the US dollar is likely to remain supported by rising energy prices amidst escalating geopolitical tensions in the Gulf region. Per the…
The desk interprets MUFG's observation that the resurgence in oil prices, driven by geopolitical tensions and disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz, is exerting…
Per the full note [source], Brent crude has breached $90/bbl as Persian Gulf escalation disrupts vessel flows through the Strait of Hormuz, with only 2…
The desk argues that a potential shift in Japan's Government Pension Investment Fund (GPIF) asset allocation could have significant implications not only…
The current geopolitical tensions in the Strait of Hormuz heighten risks associated with the recovery of oil and gas infrastructure, particularly in light of…
The desk anticipates a cautious outlook for European rates as the ECB prepares for its next meeting amid evolving market dynamics. Per the full note from J.P.…
In recent discussions, it has been noted that higher energy prices have not led to a stronger USD, primarily due to disappointing US economic data and a more…
The desk maintains a cautiously bullish stance on the USD, balancing recent soft CPI data against persistent hawkish signals from the Federal Reserve. Per the…
Per the full note from UBS, the U.S. equity market remains poised for growth driven by three core elements highlighted by David Lefkowitz. Central to this…