Polish rates remain unchanged; post-meeting statement signals continuity
At a Glance
Per the full note , the National Bank of Poland held its main rate at 3.75% in September, matching market consensus, with a press release broadly unchanged from July, signaling policy continuity. The Council acknowledged firmer GDP growth and higher CPI inflation driven by fuel prices but saw only a modest rise in core inflation and noted weaker wage growth and falling employment as offsetting factors. The desk at ING sees rates on hold in the coming months, with potential cuts delayed until 2H26, and dismisses any near-term easing despite Governor Glapiński's earlier dovish tilt. This view sits within a stable Polish macro backdrop, with no high-impact domestic events on the calendar over the next month to force a rethink.
Key Takeaways
- 01NBP left rates unchanged at 3.75% in September, in line with expectations and consensus.
- 02Post-meeting statement broadly unchanged from July, signaling policy continuity.
- 03Inflation rising toward upper tolerance band, but second-round effects absent due to weaker wage growth and falling employment.
- 04Desk sees no near-term cuts, with potential easing delayed to 2H26.
Full Analysis
What the desk is arguing
The desk argues that the NBP's September hold, with policy rates unchanged at 3.75%, confirms a period of stability, as the post-meeting statement remained broadly consistent with July's tone. Per the full note , the MPC highlighted robust GDP growth in 2Q26, driven by stronger investment and slower consumption, while CPI inflation rose toward the upper bound of the tolerance band (3.4% y/y in August) on higher fuel prices.
The Council sees these inflationary pressures as largely external, with wage growth weakening and employment declining, which mitigates second-round effects. The desk therefore expects flat rates in the near term, with potential cuts not materializing until 2H26. The alternative read—that Glapiński's July dovishness presaged imminent easing—is implicitly rejected, as the desk sees no scope for cuts in the coming month.
Market Implications
Watch EUR/PLN for rangebound trading as rate differentials remain stable; any shift in NBP guidance or a surprise inflation print could trigger volatility. The next MPC meeting in October will be scrutinized for any change in forward guidance.
From the original
Older quick take Quick take Published 16:27 Poland Polish rates remain unchanged; post-meeting statement signals continuity In line with our expectations and the market consensus, the Monetary Policy Council left the National Bank of Poland's policy rates unchanged in September (
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4 itemsPolish MPC remains patient and keeps policy rates on hold in October
Per the full note from ing-think, the National Bank of Poland kept its reference rate at 3.75% in October, and the desk argues this on-hold stance can persist for several months despite headline inflation rising. The MPC attributed the September uptick primarily to fuel prices while core inflation likely edged lower, and it introduced 'regulatory decisions concerning energy prices' as a new risk to the outlook. Analysts Rafal Benecki and Adam Antoniak frame the statement as broadly neutral with a mildly dovish tint, suggesting any tightening cycle would not arrive until 1Q27 — and would be less aggressive than markets currently price. No high-impact events are scheduled for Poland over the next 30 days, meaning the next real catalyst is Governor Glapinski's press conference and the evolution of regulated energy prices. Our internal coverage bundle contains no tracked currency pair for this commentary, so we have no consensus target or per-firm spread to anchor against.
CEE & CCA week ahead: Central bank decisions and inflation data in focus
The National Bank of Poland is expected to maintain its benchmark interest rate at 3.75%, despite dovish signals from Governor Adam Glapiński, reflecting continued uncertainty in inflation trajectories and economic conditions across Central and Eastern Europe. Per the full note [source], while recent inflation print increases have raised pressures, the central bank appears more aligned with sustaining current policy rather than easing. Concurrently, Hungary is poised to release inflation data that may show upward pressure due to recent fuel price hikes, which could be pivotal for monetary policy discussions in the region.