1.1100: Key support level for EUR/USD in countdown to US CPI data
As the Euro trades at 1.1373, it notably holds its ground above the key 1.1100 support level, which is critical ahead of the upcoming US CPI data. Market participants are closely watching this figure, as the data could significantly impact sentiment and trend direction. Currently, the EUR/USD is positioned favorably compared to other forecasts, suggesting potential strength in the Euro if CPI figures align with or under expectations.
Where it sits in our coverage
Our consensus EUR/USD target stands at 1.1425, with notable firm ranges stretching from 1.1000 at HSBC to a high of 1.2200 at CIBC. This range indicates a broad spectrum of expectations, with several firms such as Commerzbank and Nordea projecting targets above 1.1800 for the Mar26 outlook.
How firms align
Firms like RBC and CIBC have a bullish stance, targeting 1.1600 and 1.1866 for March 2026 respectively, aligning with the pivotal nature of the headline's sentiment on EUR resilience. Notably, CIBC's optimistic forecast surpasses the expected support levels indicated by other firms.
What the data shows
Recent revisions suggest an upward bias, with Scotiabank adjusting its March target to 1.1734. Our prior analysis highlights a prevailing optimistic sentiment surrounding the Euro, as seen in /research/eurusd-ecb-rate-path-2026-11-09 and /research/eurusd-ecb-rate-path.
How firms align with this view
Aligned with the headline view
Contrary positioning
Key takeaways
- 01EUR/USD remains resilient at 1.1373, above key support at 1.1100.
- 02CPI data could act as a catalyst for movement around this support level.
- 03Top firm targets hint at potential for EUR strength, with forecasts above 1.1700.
- 04Watch how today's US CPI data influences trader positioning in the coming sessions.
Market implications
Market participants should monitor the upcoming US CPI release as significant volatility around the 1.1100 support level is anticipated. This figure may dictate sentiment and could shift expectations reflected in our consensus EUR/USD target of 1.1425.
Risks to this view
A stronger-than-expected US CPI could invalidate the current view, pushing EUR/USD below the critical 1.1100 support level. Additionally, any unexpected shifts in ECB policy could alter the landscape significantly, impacting forecasted targets.
Sentiment by currency
USD~EUR~JPY~GBP~Composite USD score: +0.00
Sources & References
How we cover this story
Other coverage on this pair
EUR/USD Price Forecast: Fears of aggressive Fed tightening lift US Dollar
Market repricing Fed tightening expectations as growth and inflation narratives shift; monitor breakout below 1.1200 for sustained EUR/USD weakness.
EUR/USD outlook: Recovery continues to face headwinds at the multi-week range ceiling
EUR/USD recovery testing multi-week range resistance; break-above required to confirm sustained euro strength versus downside retest risk.
EUR/USD: Range-bound then recovering – ING
French political uncertainty sustaining EUR risk premium through Q1; range 1.10–1.15 implies USD structural bid into April elections.