EUR/USD monitors CPI and the situation in France
The EUR/USD pair is experiencing pressure, trading around 1.1220 as the U.S. dollar continues to show strength, even amid easing geopolitical tensions like a potential U.S.-Iran deal. Market participants are closely watching the upcoming CPI data, which could serve as a key driver for the euro amid ongoing instability in France. This setup emphasizes underlying economic fundamentals as the main influence on currency flows rather than political developments alone.
Where it sits in our coverage
Our consensus EUR/USD target currently stands at 1.1425, with a significant range among firms from 1.1162 to 1.2000. Notably, RBC holds one of the most bullish projections at 1.2000 for Dec26, while Investec and Mizuho maintain more conservative targets at 1.1455 and 1.1300 respectively.
How firms align
Firms such as Nomura and Commerzbank maintain bullish positions for March 2026 at 1.1700 and 1.1900 respectively, aligning with our headline synopsis that anticipates a potential rebound in the euro. Conversely, HSBC’s target remains more cautious at 1.1000 for December 2026, illustrating a divergence in sentiment.
What the data shows
Recent forecast revisions by Scotiabank and Rabobank suggest an upward adjustment in expectations for March 2026, now at 1.1734 and 1.1759, respectively. This shift is indicative of growing optimism in the EUR’s recovery potential, as also highlighted in our report on /research/eurusd-ecb-rate-path-2026-11-09.
How firms align with this view
Aligned with the headline view
Contrary positioning
Key takeaways
- 01EUR/USD prints at 1.1220, lower, impacted by USD strength.
- 02Watch for CPI data; significant point for euro direction.
- 03Sentiment varies; RBC's Dec26 target at 1.2000 looms bullish.
Market implications
Upcoming U.S. CPI data could serve as a catalyst; monitor the 1.1200 level. Our consensus target at 1.1425 reflects broader expectations for the pair, providing a benchmark for traders. Positioning around this figure will be key in upcoming sessions.
Risks to this view
A sharp deviation in CPI results towards stronger than anticipated inflation could bolster USD further, which may invalidate bullish sentiment on the euro. Any new developments from France that exacerbate instability could also reverse the current outlook.
Sentiment by currency
USD+EUR JPY~GBP~Composite USD score: +0.35
Sources & References
How we cover this story
Other coverage on this pair
EUR/USD Price Forecast: Fears of aggressive Fed tightening lift US Dollar
Market repricing Fed tightening expectations as growth and inflation narratives shift; monitor breakout below 1.1200 for sustained EUR/USD weakness.
EUR/USD outlook: Recovery continues to face headwinds at the multi-week range ceiling
EUR/USD recovery testing multi-week range resistance; break-above required to confirm sustained euro strength versus downside retest risk.
EUR/USD: Range-bound then recovering – ING
French political uncertainty sustaining EUR risk premium through Q1; range 1.10–1.15 implies USD structural bid into April elections.