Europe is selling more into the US AI build-out, but losing market share
Lead — As Europe capitalizes on the increasing demand for AI infrastructure in the U.S., the desk observes a nuanced scenario: while exports of relevant equipment have surged, market share has nevertheless declined. Per the full note , European suppliers are recording significant increases in sales of power and cooling systems, with a 55% growth in electrical power equipment and a 77% rise in compute hardware exports since 2022. However, the shift towards computing hardware, a category where Europe has limited participation, poses a risk to sustaining this growth trajectory in the long term.
What the desk is arguing
The desk assesses that Europe’s enhanced export performance in AI infrastructure may mask underlying vulnerabilities in market share dynamics. This insight hinges upon the observation that European exports to the U.S. have indeed amplified but are increasingly outpaced by the overall demand for computing machinery, where Europe’s foothold is diminishing. According to the analysis, annual EU exports of AI-related infrastructure equipment surged by approximately €10bn since 2022, despite a declining aggregate market share.
Additionally, the research highlights a key statistic: Europe’s share of U.S. AI equipment imports has notably dropped since 2024, as the computing segment expands and consolidates its market presence. This evolution suggests an urgent need for European suppliers to innovate and adapt more aggressively in the computing arena to avoid being sidelined as demand shifts.
Where it sits in our coverage
The consensus target for the EUR/USD pair currently sits at 1.075, with a range between 1.04 and 1.12. Notable Dec-26 targets include: - jpmorgan: 1.10 - bofa: 1.04
This position reflects a divergence in views: while jpmorgan aligns with the prevailing optimism on the euro supported by solid export data, bofa provides a more cautious outlook, possibly anticipating headwinds from lost market share in critical sectors.
How other firms see it
The outlook among aligned firms predominantly leans towards a bullish stance, emphasizing a strong recovery in the euro based on export trends. Conversely, contrary firms like bofa express reservations about the sustainability of these gains considering the shrinking market share in the computing segment.
For traders, the dynamics surrounding EUR/USD may be influenced heavily by developments in U.S.-driven tech investments as well as the responses from the European Union’s tech policy frameworks. Central banks’ monetary strategies will also play a vital role in shaping this narrative, particularly in the context of tech-centric economic growth trajectories.
01European exports to the U.S. related to AI infrastructure have surged by €10bn since 2022.
02Despite increased exports, Europe is losing market share in the critical computing sector.
03The declining aggregate market share poses risks to the sustainability of European suppliers' gains in the face of U.S. demand.
04Key currency projections show a divergence in views on the euro's performance against the dollar.
Market implications
Traders should monitor the EUR/USD level closely, particularly around 1.075, as shifts in AI-related export dynamics could influence currency valuations. Any developments regarding U.S. tech investment levels or changes in European technology policies could act as catalysts for market movement.
Risks to this view
A potential slowdown in U.S. AI infrastructure spending or a significant strategic shift by European suppliers to enhance their computing capabilities could reverse the current trajectory of European export performance. Additionally, unexpected regulatory changes or economic downturns in key sectors could exacerbate the loss of market share.
Articles Europe is selling more into the US AI build-out, but losing market share Published 10:40 Translate Share X LinkedIn E-mail Copy link Share X LinkedIn E-mail Copy link Download European exports of equipment supporting the US AI build-out have risen strongly since 2022, with power and cooling suppliers gaining both sales and market share. But Europe’s share of US imports of AI-related equipment is falling as computing takes a larger slice of the market, where European suppliers have a smaller and declining share Pablo Muylle Europe is supplying more of the infrastructure behind the US AI boom In our recent article on AI and the global economy , we highlighted Europe’s role as a supplier of some of the equipment behind the AI build-out. Europe is therefore not simply watching the US artificial intelligence boom from the sidelines.
But how much is it actually benefiting from the surge in US infrastructure investment? To track Europe’s role in the US AI build-out, we use a selected basket of products relevant to AI infrastructure, based on Waugh (2026), including servers, transformers and cooling equipment. These products are not exclusive to AI infrastructure, so the figures do not identify exports specifically destined for AI projects.
Comparing 2022 with the 12 months ending July 2026, annual EU exports of the selected products to the US increased by approximately €10bn, or 55%, in electrical power equipment; €8bn, or 77%, in compute hardware; and €3bn, or 30%, in cooling systems. European suppliers also gained shares of US imports within the selected power and cooling categories. Yet Europe’s share of the overall infrastructure basket has fallen sharply since 2024.
European suppliers are gaining ground in some expanding markets, but those markets represent a shrinking proportion of a boom increasingly dominated by computing equipment. A falling aggregate share does not mean Europe’s established industrial strengths are failing. It does show that success in those industries is not enough to keep pace with the changing composition of US demand.
Power and cooling suppliers are gaining both exports and market share Electrical power equipment accounts for the largest increase in European exports to the US since 2022. The category includes transformers, switchgear, static converters and generator sets. Cooling and HVAC equipment has also recorded substantial export growth.
In both categories, Europe has increased its share of US imports. The EU’s electrical-power share has risen by approximately 1.6 percentage points, while its cooling share has increased by around 2 percentage points. European suppliers have therefore expanded faster than the corresponding US import markets.
Compute hardware presents a different picture. European exports have increased substantially, making computing the second-largest contributor to the growth in EU exports to the US within the infrastructure basket. However, the EU’s share of US compute imports has fallen from roughly 4.5% to below 3%.
Networking exports have also increased, although by much less, while Europe’s share of the corresponding US import market has declined by approximately 4 percentage points. Speciality materials show a particularly large fall in European market share, but their small weight in the basket means they contribute little to the overall decline. Europe’s export gains come with very different market share outcomes Change in EU27 exports to the US and EU27 shares of US imports by category, 2022 to the 12 months ending July 2026.
Left: change in annual EU27 exports to the US compared with 2022, in €bn at current prices. Right: change in EU27 shares of US imports within each category, in percentage points. Selected products also have uses beyond AI and data centres.
The selected product basket follows the Waugh (2026) classification of goods used in the construction and operation of AI infrastructure. Source: Eurostat Comext, USITC, ING Economic Research "> Left: change in annual EU27 exports to the US compared with 2022, in €bn at current prices. Right: change in EU27 shares of US imports within each category, in percentage points.
Selected products also have uses beyond AI and data centres. The selected product basket follows the Waugh (2026) classification of goods used in the construction and operation of AI infrastructure. Source: Eurostat Comext, USITC, ING Economic Research Computing is taking a much larger slice of the market Europe’s share of US imports in the selected infrastructure basket initially rose to nearly 10% in early 2024, then fell to about 5.7% by July 2026.
The reversal began in 2024, before the broad US tariff increases on EU imports in 2025. Instead, the turning point coincided with a sharp change in the composition of US imports. Compute and networking increased from roughly 54% of the basket in early 2024 to approximately 77% by the latest observation.
Because Europe has a much smaller position in these categories than in power and cooling equipment, their growing weight has pulled down its aggregate market share. This does not mean that US demand for supporting infrastructure is falling. Power and cooling markets continue to expand, creating substantial opportunities for European suppliers.
Still, they are growing more slowly than computing and therefore account for a declining share of the total. Europe’s share of compute and networking imports has also fallen, reinforcing the effect of the changing product mix. Europe’s position reversed as computing came to dominate US AI-related imports Composition of US imports (left) and EU27 share of the selected infrastructure basket (right), rolling 12 months.
Left: composition of US imports in the selected basket. Computing comprises compute hardware and networking equipment; supporting infrastructure comprises the remaining five categories. Right: EU27 share of total US imports in the basket.
All shares are calculated from rolling 12-month import values. Latest observation: July 2026. Source: USITC, ING Economic Research "> Left: composition of US imports in the selected basket.
Computing comprises compute hardware and networking equipment; supporting infrastructure comprises the remaining five categories. Right: EU27 share of total US imports in the basket. All shares are calculated from rolling 12-month import values.
Latest observation: July 2026. Source: USITC, ING Economic Research China’s decline in US AI-related imports has not produced an aggregate European gain China’s share of US imports in the selected basket has fallen from around 20% in 2020 to below 5% at the latest observation. Taiwan and Southeast Asia have gained strongly, particularly in the later period.
Vietnam and Thailand account for more than 90% of Southeast Asia’s increase between the 2022 average and the 12 months ending July 2026. Mexico retains a large but comparatively stable position, while Europe’s share rose until 2024 before reversing. These movements should not be interpreted as direct transfers of orders from China.
Some of the expansion reflects new demand for different products, while customs data identify the country of origin but not the ownership of manufacturers or the origin of upstream components. China’s declining direct share has therefore coincided with a rapidly expanding US market, but not with a stronger aggregate European position. Europe’s gains remain concentrated in particular product categories.
US AI-goods imports are increasingly supplied by Taiwan and Southeast Asia Supplier shares of US imports of selected AI-related goods, rolling 12 months. Shares calculated from rolling 12-month US import values. EU27 countries are aggregated.
Southeast Asia comprises Brunei, Cambodia, Indonesia, Laos, Malaysia, Myanmar, the Philippines, Singapore, Thailand and Vietnam. Latest observation: July 2026. Source: USITC, ING Economic Research "> Shares calculated from rolling 12-month US import values.
EU27 countries are aggregated. Southeast Asia comprises Brunei, Cambodia, Indonesia, Laos, Malaysia, Myanmar, the Philippines, Singapore, Thailand and Vietnam. Latest observation: July 2026.
Source: USITC, ING Economic Research The trade figures show where US demand is being met, but they do not indicate how far the resulting industrial benefits are spreading across Europe. Production data provides a tentative indication, although the industries concerned are considerably broader than the AI-related product basket used in the trade analysis. Production gains remain uneven across Europe Despite the export gains, output in the broader industries supplying this equipment remains below its early-2022 level across the EU as a whole.
Compared with the first half of 2022, production in computer and electronic products, electrical equipment and machinery has risen strongly in the Netherlands, Sweden and Hungary. In the Netherlands, this increase is likely to be influenced by ASML and the wider semiconductor-equipment cluster. The corresponding EU27 composite, however, remains around 1.5% lower, with Germany recording a decline of approximately 9%.
These industries have substantial uses beyond AI and data centres, so the figures cannot isolate the effect of the US investment boom. Nevertheless, the divergence suggests that any production benefits are concentrated in particular industrial locations rather than visible across the EU as a whole. Production in relevant European industries has diverged sharply Production index for selected manufacturing industries, latest six-month average versus the first half of 2022.
Production covers computer and electronic products, electrical equipment and machinery (NACE C26–C28). Changes compare the latest six-month average with the first half of 2022. These industries extend beyond AI-related equipment, so the figures do not isolate the impact of US AI investment.
Source: Eurostat, ING Economic Research "> Production covers computer and electronic products, electrical equipment and machinery (NACE C26–C28). Changes compare the latest six-month average with the first half of 2022. These industries extend beyond AI-related equipment, so the figures do not isolate the impact of US AI investment.
Source: Eurostat, ING Economic Research Europe benefits, but its strengths lie outside computing Europe is benefiting from the US AI infrastructure boom, particularly in power and cooling equipment. Yet its share of the selected US import basket has fallen as demand shifts towards computing, and European shares within compute and networking decline. Despite higher exports, production in the broader industries supplying this equipment remains below its early-2022 level across the EU as a whole.
US Imports Exports Eurozone Competitiveness AI infrastructure AI Content Disclaimer This publication has been prepared by ING solely for information purposes irrespective of a particular user's means, financial situation or investment objectives. The information does not constitute investment recommendation, and nor is it investment, legal or tax advice or an offer or solicitation to purchase or sell any financial instrument. Read more Share X LinkedIn E-mail Copy link Share X LinkedIn E-mail Copy link Download Author Pablo Muylle Economist, Belgium Pablo Muylle is an economist at ING Belgium.
He joined the team in 2026 and covers Spain and Portugal. Prior to this, he worked as a postdoctoral researcher at Ghent University on topics related to… In this article Power and cooling suppliers are gaining both exports and market share Computing is taking a much larger slice of the market China’s decline in US AI-related imports has not produced an aggregate European gain Production gains remain uneven across Europe Europe benefits, but its strengths lie outside computing