Euro loses momentum as US Dollar recovers from intraday lows
The Euro is losing its upward momentum as the US Dollar recovers from earlier intraday lows, indicating a potential shift in market sentiment towards the USD. As concerns over slowing growth in the Eurozone surface, traders are closely monitoring key technical support levels for EUR/USD. The recent price action suggests a re-evaluation of the Euro's strength, particularly as it has been unable to sustain previous gains against the Dollar at current levels.
Where it sits in our coverage
Our consensus EUR/USD target stands at 1.1600 (median across firms), with Goldman at the upper bound (1.2100) and Citi at the lower (1.1300). The headline reflects a broader market sentiment leaning towards a weaker Euro, as indicated by the lower targets set forth by several institutions.
How firms align
With both BOFA and Citi forecasting lower targets for March 2026 at 1.1700 and 1.1300 respectively, this aligns with the current sentiment of EUR/USD fading momentum. In contrast, firms like Goldman and MUFG suggest a more bullish outlook, with targets at 1.1800 and 1.2600, signaling a divergence in expectations. Check our insights from /research/eurusd-ecb-rate-path for more on the recent trend.
What the data shows
Recent revisions from various desks have highlighted uncertainty, with HSBC lowering its target to 1.1050 and others adjusting slightly upwards. This indicates a market that is generally reassessing its position amidst economic fluctuation. See our report /research/eurusd-ecb-rate-path-2026-07-19 for a detailed breakdown of the current projections.
How firms align with this view
Aligned with the headline view
Contrary positioning
Key takeaways
- 01EUR/USD currently trades at 1.1434; key support levels to monitor are becoming critical.
- 02Traders should beware of the USD's recovery trajectory; watch for confirmation on resistance levels around 1.1500.
- 03A shift below 1.1400 could signal stronger bearish sentiment against the EUR.
- 04Continued revisions in forecasts suggest an evolving EUR outlook as US economic data unfolds.
Market implications
Looking ahead, traders should watch for the ECB's upcoming rate decision scheduled for July 23, 2026, as this could provide clarity on the Euro's trajectory. Maintaining a focus on the consensus target of 1.1600 will be essential as the market digests new economic data and policy changes.
Risks to this view
The outlook could be invalidated if the ECB opts for a more hawkish stance than currently anticipated, potentially driving the Euro back into a stronger position. Additionally, unexpected U.S. employment data could shift the sentiment dramatically, reversing current trends.
Sentiment by currency
USD+EUR JPY~GBP~Composite USD score: +0.55
Sources & References
How we cover this story
Other coverage on this pair
Euro: Downward bias capped by 1.1390 support against US Dollar – UOB
EUR/USD downtrend remains intact with 1.1390 as near-term floor; break lower would signal fresh weakness in single currency.
EUR/USD Price Forecast: Bears retain control below 200-SMA on H4; break of 1.1400 awaited
Technical breakdown below 1.1400 would confirm weakening EUR/USD structure; watch for range-bound consolidation before directional conviction.
Euro: ECB pause seen limiting downside against US Dollar – BBH
ECB rate pause removes immediate EUR depreciation catalyst, capping USD/EUR upside despite Fed's higher-for-longer stance.
Euro: Policy divergence supports gains against US Dollar - DBS
ECB tightening bias relative to Fed pivot expectations creates structural support for EUR/USD above 1.10 on policy rate differentials.
Bank desks on this topic
July ECB Cheat Sheet: No lull in sight
Articles July ECB Cheat Sheet: No lull in sight Published 09:43 FX Rates Share X LinkedIn E-mail Copy link Share X LinkedIn E-mail Copy link Download We expect the ECB to hold rates steady on Thursday. But what was meant to be a quiet meeting may evolve into a hawk-dove tug-of-wa
Rates Spark: Testing new highs
Articles Rates Spark: Testing new highs Published 08:12 Rates Spark Share X LinkedIn E-mail Copy link Share X LinkedIn E-mail Copy link Download As oil prices push higher again, the 2Y EUR swap rate has tested levels above 3%. Implied rate volatility remains more contained as the
FX Daily: Burnham’s first market wobble
Articles FX Daily: Burnham’s first market wobble Published 07:25 FX Share X LinkedIn E-mail Copy link Share X LinkedIn E-mail Copy link Download Gilts and the pound faced some volatility yesterday after new UK Prime Minister Andy Burnham signalled some flexibility with the fiscal
FX Daily: Energy prices will keep dollar supported
Articles FX Daily: Energy prices will keep dollar supported Published 07:37 FX Share X LinkedIn E-mail Copy link Share X LinkedIn E-mail Copy link Download It is a familiar theme now, but deteriorating news flow from the Gulf is keeping energy prices, short-dated yields and the d
Cross-firm research
EUR/USD Sits 1.55% Below Dec-26 Consensus of 1.16
EUR/USD spot at 1.1421 trails the 29-firm Dec-26 median target of 1.16 by 1.55%, with a max-min dispersion of 0.20 across the panel.
EUR/USD Consensus Check: Spot at 1.1412, Median Target 1.16 — Week of July 20, 2026
EUR/USD trades 1.62% below the 29-firm median Dec-26 target of 1.16, with a 0.20-wide dispersion band exposing deep disagreement on the Fed-ECB terminal gap.
EUR/USD Consensus Check: Spot at 1.1438, Median Target 1.17 — Week of July 19, 2026
EUR/USD trades 2.24% below the 29-firm median Dec-26 target of 1.17, with a 0.20 dispersion range signalling deep disagreement on the dollar's path.