Euro: Upside bias capped by nearby resistance against US Dollar – UOB
The euro remains under pressure against the US dollar, recently sitting at 1.1434. As highlighted by UOB, the upside bias appears constrained by nearby resistance levels. Despite this, there is a positive medium-term outlook, with several firms projecting a gradual increase in EUR/USD. The market sentiment remains neutral, suggesting participants are wary but not overtly bearish.
Where it sits in our coverage
Our consensus EUR/USD target currently sits at 1.1700 for March 2026, with a range spanning from 1.1200 to 1.2000 across various firms. This indicates a balanced sentiment among the institutions, reflecting some optimism even as UOB notes resistance ahead. The forecasts from notable firms like Goldman and MUFG align with the upper range, expecting levels of 1.1800 and 1.1800 respectively by March 2026.
How firms align
Goldman Sachs and MUFG have targets of 1.1800 for March 2026, which supports the notion of upward potential for the euro, diverging from UOB's more cautious view. Conversely, Citi’s lower target of 1.1300 for the same period indicates a bearish outlook that contrasts with the overall trend. For more details, see our internal reports on these firms.
What the data shows
Recent revisions indicate a slight upward shift in expectations, particularly from firms like MUFG and Scotiabank, with Scotiabank recently adjusting its target up to 1.1734 for March 2026. This contrasts with earlier bearish sentiments illustrated in our research on the EUR/USD divergence with ECB rate paths (/research/eurusd-ecb-rate-path).
How firms align with this view
Aligned with the headline view
Contrary positioning
Key takeaways
- 01Euro at 1.1434 faces resistance before potential upswing.
- 02Key resistance levels are crucial for short-term EUR/USD trading strategies.
- 03Data shows upward revision pressures with targets around 1.1800.
- 04Watch for key economic indicators from the Eurozone for volatility.
Market implications
Traders should note the immediate resistance level near 1.1450; breaking this could reignite bullish momentum. Upcoming economic data releases, particularly from the Eurozone, are pivotal for maintaining the current upward bias against the USD, aligning with our consensus target of 1.1700.
Risks to this view
A strong shift in US economic data or a more aggressive Fed stance could lead to a reversal, pushing the euro below resistance levels and challenging the consensus targets. Specifically, a rise in US interest rates or unexpected inflation data could invalidate bullish projections.
Sentiment by currency
USD~EUR~JPY~GBP~Composite USD score: +0.00
Sources & References
How we cover this story
Other coverage on this pair
EUR/USD Price Forecast: 20-day EMA acts as key barrier near 1.1460
EUR/USD Price Forecast: Euro stalls below 1.1475 despite US Dollar weakness
Euro: Rallies seen tiring below 1.16 against US Dollar – ING
EUR/USD momentum appears limited above 1.16, suggesting near-term resistance may cap further euro strength against dollar.