EUR/USD breaks support, Eyes 1.0950, Gold risks $3,500; USD/JPY breaks 159 resist; Bitcoin to $65K? [Video]
The US dollar has strengthened significantly, with the EUR/USD pair breaking below the key support level of 1.11 and eyeing a potential move towards 1.0950 in the medium term. This shift not only highlights the resilience of the dollar but also raises questions about the prospects for the Eurozone as pressures mount. Meanwhile, the USD/JPY's rise above the 159 mark signals bullish sentiment that may push it towards 160.40, creating further cross-currency implications.
Where it sits in our coverage
Our consensus EUR/USD target currently stands at 1.1400 (median across firms), with RBC at the upper end (1.2000) and ABN AMRO on the lower end (1.1284). The recent market dynamics suggest a divergence as the publisher's view is notably more bearish than our consensus, which anticipates a rebound from the current lows.
How firms align
RBC's target of 1.2000 for March 2026 indicates a more optimistic stance compared to the current bearish tone evident in the headline. Conversely, BofA holds a more cautious view, setting its target at 1.1700 for the same period, reflecting an alignment with the headline's sentiment. See our report on RBC's position at /research/rbc-eur.
What the data shows
Recent revisions show a tightening of forecasts, with Mizuho reducing its March target to 1.1300 reflecting the current weakness. Our ongoing analysis suggests that the likelihood of EUR reaching levels of 1.0950 could materialize, as per movements observed in /research/eurusd-ecb-rate-path-2026-11-11.
How firms align with this view
Aligned with the headline view
Contrary positioning
Key takeaways
- 01EUR/USD has broken below 1.11, targeting 1.0950 as per current momentum.
- 02Focus shifts to USD-strength amidst deteriorating bullish sentiment in GBP and EUR.
- 03Key resistance for USD/JPY is now 160.40, which could be tested if US data remains strong.
Market implications
Traders should closely monitor the 1.0950 level for EUR/USD, with significant implications for sentiment if breached. Upcoming US economic releases could further strengthen the dollar, impacting the consensus EUR/USD target of 1.1400.
Risks to this view
A reversal in dollar strength could occur if upcoming US economic data disappoints, triggering a shift back towards the 1.11 support level in EUR/USD. Additionally, geopolitical risks could also dampen the dollar's ascent.
Sentiment by currency
USD+EUR JPY GBPComposite USD score: +0.75
Sources & References
How we cover this story
Other coverage on this pair
EUR/USD technical analysis: Near-term rally expected to stall as bearish trend resumes [Video]
Elliott Wave completion of wave 4 at 1.127 signals resumption of EUR/USD downtrend; wave 5 initiation targets lower levels.
Euro Falls as US Dollar gains on inflation concerns, Fed rate hike bets
USD strength on Fed tightening expectations pressures EUR/USD technical levels; watch for break below 1.1050 support.