Euro Falls as US Dollar gains on inflation concerns, Fed rate hike bets
The Euro continues its downward trajectory against the US Dollar, trading around 1.1050 as inflation concerns drive Fed rate hike expectations. This marks the Euro's fourth consecutive day of losses against a strengthening USD, highlighting the market's reaction to evolving economic indicators. The pressure on EUR/USD is palpable, with traders now closely monitoring the psychological support at 1.1050. A break below this level could signal further bearish momentum for the Euro.
Where it sits in our coverage
Our consensus EUR/USD target stands at 1.1400 (median across multiple firms), with notable projections from Commerzbank and RBC placing targets as high as 1.1900 and 1.1600, while ABN AMRO occupies the lower range at 1.1284 for March 2026. This divergence suggests differing perspectives on the Euro's performance against the Dollar in the coming months.
How firms align
Several firms align with the bearish sentiment presented in the headline. For instance, Investec forecasts a more modest target of 1.1455 for March 2026, which indicates skepticism about the Euro's recovery amid current macroeconomic challenges. Conversely, CIBC's target of 1.1866 reflects a more bullish outlook, contrasting with the prevailing trends.
What the data shows
Recent revisions indicate a slight shift towards caution, with Mizuho adjusting their March 2026 target down to 1.1300. This adjustment underscores the market's growing concern over Eurozone inflation relative to the US. Related insights can be found in our /research/eurusd-ecb-rate-path-2026-11-12 report, detailing the consensus undercurrents influencing EUR/USD.
How firms align with this view
Aligned with the headline view
Contrary positioning
Key takeaways
- 01EUR/USD holds near key support at 1.1050; risk of breakdown looms.
- 02USD bullish momentum asserts pressure on the Euro, driven by Fed rate hike speculation.
- 03Market traders eye upcoming US inflation data for potential directional shifts.
Market implications
Investors should focus on the 1.1050 level; a breach of this support could pave the way for further declines. Additionally, upcoming US inflation reports will be crucial, with our consensus target of 1.1400 acting as a potential resistance point for any recovery in EUR/USD.
Risks to this view
A reversal of this view could occur if US inflation data surprises to the downside, diminishing the impetus for Fed rate hikes. Additionally, any positive developments in Eurozone economic indicators could invigorate the Euro, prompting a reassessment of current bearish trends.
Sentiment by currency
USD+EUR JPY~GBP~Composite USD score: +0.65
Sources & References
How we cover this story
Other coverage on this pair
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Cross-firm research
EUR/USD Consensus Check: Spot at 1.1057, Median Target 1.14 — Week of November 12, 2026
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EUR/USD spot sits 2.12% below the 32-firm median Dec-26 target of 1.14, with a 0.135 range separating the most bullish and bearish desks.
EUR/USD Consensus Check: Spot at 1.1163, Median Target 1.14 — Week of November 10, 2026
EUR/USD spot sits 2.08% below the 32-firm median Dec-26 target of 1.14, with a 0.135 range separating Citi's 1.085 floor from Commerzbank's 1.22 ceiling.