EUR/USD technical analysis: Near-term rally expected to stall as bearish trend resumes [Video]
The EUR/USD pair appears poised to resume its bearish trend following the Elliott Wave analysis indicating the completion of wave 4 at 1.127. Currently traded at 1.1373, the currency pair's movement suggests that wave 5 is in play, which typically targets lower levels. This technical framework aligns with a broader sentiment of USD strength and EUR weakness, reflective of the market's overall bias as we navigate through key economic indicators. Analysts will closely monitor this trend to gauge the potential for further downside, particularly amid upcoming data releases.
Where it sits in our coverage
Our consensus EUR/USD target sits at 1.1400 (median across firms), with CIBC at the upper end of the spectrum (1.2200) and Lloyds at the lower bound (1.1200). This range reflects differing perspectives on the sustainability of the EUR's relative strength against the USD. The analysis from fxstreet.com reinforces this bearish narrative as the market steps away from the recent highs, marking a pivotal moment.
How firms align
Firms like Investec (March 1.1455) and RBC (March 1.1600) appear somewhat more optimistic compared to the bearish outlook in the headline. Conversely, Commerzbank's higher target of 1.1900 suggests a divergence from the wave analysis presented by fxstreet.com. As noted in our published research on /research/eurusd-ecb-rate-path, there is a clear consensus forming around a bearish bias.
What the data shows
Recent forecast revisions have also trended downwards, with Mizuho lowering their March target to 1.1300. Moreover, our continuous tracking shows a variance in expectations as highlighted in /research/eurusd-ecb-rate-path-2026-11-10, where the consensus target has remained stubbornly stable at 1.1400 despite fluctuations in spot prices.
How firms align with this view
Key takeaways
- 01EUR/USD's current price of 1.1373 signals potential continuation of a bearish trend.
- 02Traders should monitor wave 5 developments, which may target lower levels.
- 03Key economic indicators ahead may influence momentum; watch for levels near 1.127.
- 04Upcoming ECB communications could shift sentiment unexpectedly.
Market implications
Investors should remain vigilant for EUR/USD testing the significant level of 1.127, which could trigger further selling pressure if breached. Calendar events, particularly ECB meetings, may catalyze volatility as market participants reassess their positions in light of evolving economic data. Our consensus stands at 1.1400, and deviations from this could prompt action from traders.
Risks to this view
A reversal of this bearish view could occur if key economic data surprises to the upside, or if ECB signals a more hawkish stance than currently anticipated. A breach above recent resistance levels, particularly above 1.1455, could indicate a shift in market sentiment.
Sentiment by currency
USD+EUR JPY~GBP~Composite USD score: +0.65
Sources & References
How we cover this story
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