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FX BANK FORECAST · COVERAGE
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Aggregated year-end forecasts, scenario shifts, and curated analyst notes from 38 institutional desks. No promotion.
FX BANK FORECAST · COVERAGE
Aggregated year-end forecasts, scenario shifts, and curated analyst notes from 38 institutional desks. No promotion.
EUR/USD declined to 1.1170, marking a continued downward trajectory, largely driven by expectations surrounding the Federal Reserve's monetary policy tightening amidst solid U.S. economic data and ongoing geopolitical tensions. This trend reflects a strengthening dollar as investors prioritize safety in turbulent times. The current macroeconomic landscape will be pivotal in shaping the currency pair's path, particularly with imminent data releases and the Fed's decision looming.
Our consensus EUR/USD target sits at 1.1500 (median across 11 firms), with Citi at the upper bound (1.2200) and Investec at the lower (1.1455). This positioning indicates a cautious alignment with the market's sentiment, as [PUBLISHER]'s analysis underscores the dollar's resilience under current conditions.
Rabobank and Nomura anticipate a more optimistic EUR/USD trajectory, projecting targets of 1.1759 and 1.1700, respectively, suggesting a mid-term positive outlook despite the current bearish stance highlighted in [PUBLISHER]'s article. Conversely, BofA's lower target of 1.1700 indicates a response to the prevailing dollar strength, which could be a critical barometer moving forward.
Recent forecast revisions highlight a divided sentiment among analysts, with firms like UBS raising their Mar26 target to 1.2000 amid strong economic indicators, while SocGen maintains a more conservative estimate of 1.1700. For further insights, refer to our recent analysis at /research/eurusd-ecb-rate-path-2026-10-26.
How firms align with this view
Aligned with the headline view
Contrary positioning
Key takeaways
Market implications
Investors should closely monitor the upcoming Fed decision on October 28 as a critical catalyst, with 1.1500 being our consensus target for EUR/USD. Additionally, a breakout above 1.12 could signal a shift in sentiment.
Risks to this view
A reversal of this bearish view could arise if the Fed signals a pause in rate hikes or if geopolitical tensions ease significantly, underscoring a renewed risk appetite and potential dollar weakness.
Sentiment by currency
USD+EUR JPY~GBP~Composite USD score: +0.65
How we cover this story
EUR/USD breakdown below recent range to 1.1172 signals short-term momentum shift; watch 1.1150 as next technical support.
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DXY above 102 and pre-meeting positioning suggests broad USD strength into ECB/Fed decisions; monitor for intervention signals.
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