EUR/USD Price Forecast: Softens to near 1.1150, with bearish bias intact below 100-day SMA
The EUR/USD pair is currently trading lower near 1.1165, pressured by renewed fiscal concerns in France that heighten uncertainty across the Eurozone. This development has reinforced the bearish sentiment for the Euro relative to the Dollar. Our analysis indicates that unless the pair decisively recovers above the 100-day SMA, the bearish bias is likely to persist, warranting caution for bullish positions.
Where it sits in our coverage
Our consensus EUR/USD target sits at 1.1500 (median across 12 firms), with Commerzbank at the upper bound (1.2200) and Abn Amro at the lower (1.1100). FXStreet’s view appears more aligned with the downside bias reflected by recent price action.
How firms align
Firms such as BofA and HSBC share a more cautious outlook, with targets of 1.1700 and 1.1000 respectively for March 2026. In contrast, CIBC projects a more optimistic target at 1.1866 within the same timeframe, indicating divergence among analysts about the Euro's future performance. See our reports on these firms for more specifics: /reports/bofa and /reports/hsbc.
What the data shows
Recent revisions from firms highlight a mixed outlook; for instance, Danskebank lowered its March target to 1.1866 but revised its December target up to 1.1100. Our insights indicate traders should closely monitor the forthcoming ECB rate decision for market volatility, as discussed in /research/ecb-decision-preview-2026-10-29.
Key takeaways
- 01EUR/USD is trading near 1.1165, facing bearish pressure from Eurozone fiscal concerns.
- 02A break below 1.1150 could signal further downside risk for the Euro.
- 03Upcoming ECB rate decision on October 29 may serve as a catalyst impacting EUR/USD levels.
- 04Concerns may escalate if fiscal uncertainty continues to undermine Euro stability.
Market implications
Traders should watch the 1.1150 level closely as a breakdown could lead to further bearish momentum. Additionally, the ECB meeting on October 29 is crucial for gauging future price action, especially in the context of existing consensus which sits at 1.1500.
Risks to this view
If the Euro exhibits resilience and recovers above the 100-day SMA, this current bearish view would be invalidated. Moreover, a more substantial fiscal policy response from Eurozone authorities could shift market sentiment positively.
Sentiment by currency
USD+EUR JPY~GBP~Composite USD score: +0.65
Sources & References
How we cover this story
Other coverage on this pair
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Fed policy decision this week could extend USD strength; four-day EUR/USD downtrend suggests momentum favoring dollar on rate differential expectations.
Euro: Downside bias toward supports against US Dollar – UOB
EUR/USD breakdown below recent range to 1.1172 signals short-term momentum shift; watch 1.1150 as next technical support.