EUR/USD price analysis: Bearish momentum accelerates to 1.1133 as H4 structure engine tests critical 7TF demand floor
The EUR/USD has seen a sharp decline to 1.1133, according to fxstreet, signaling an acceleration of bearish momentum. The move is supported by a descending structure, indicating sustained selling pressure. This adds to concerns ahead of significant upcoming central bank decisions, particularly from the ECB, that could further influence market sentiment. It’s critical to monitor if this bearish trend can gain further traction or face pushback around pivotal support levels.
Where it sits in our coverage
Our consensus EUR/USD target sits at 1.1500 (median across firms), with CIBC at the upper bound (1.2200) and Investec at the lower (1.1455). The current spot rate trades notably below the consensus, highlighting a divergence in sentiment as the market reacts to recent bearish pressures.
How firms align
Several firms are incorporating a bearish framework similar to the headline's perspective, including Investec with a target of 1.1455 for Mar26 and Rabobank at 1.1759 for the same tenor. In contrast, Mizuho's lower target of 1.1300 suggests a less aggressive bearish stance. For a deeper look, see our internal reports such as /research/eurusd-ecb-rate-path.
What the data shows
Recent forecast revisions show a mixed sentiment among firms, with Danske Bank projecting a more bearish target of 1.1866 for Mar26, while UBS anticipates a stronger level at 1.2000. Our published research highlights the consideration of the ECB meeting on October 29, which could dramatically impact these forecasts, as cited in /research/ecb-decision-preview-2026-10-29.
How firms align with this view
Aligned with the headline view
Contrary positioning
Key takeaways
- 01EUR/USD is currently at 1.1133, exhibiting bearish momentum.
- 02Focus on potential support around 1.1100 from a technical standpoint.
- 03Catalysts from the ECB meeting could shift the trend as traders anticipate outcomes.
- 04Current positioning suggests that traders should be wary of further downside risks.
Market implications
Key levels to watch include 1.1100 as potential support. The upcoming ECB meeting on October 29 may serve as a decisive factor for the EUR/USD trajectory. Expectations are mixed, reflected in our consensus target of 1.1500.
Risks to this view
A stronger-than-expected ECB outcome could invalidate current bearish expectations, potentially driving the EUR/USD back above recent resistance levels. Additionally, an unexpected shift in U.S. economic data could redirect market sentiment just ahead of the key decisions.
Sentiment by currency
USD+EUR JPY~GBP~Composite USD score: +0.65
Sources & References
How we cover this story
Other coverage on this pair
Euro: Key support at 1.1113 in focus against US Dollar – Scotiabank
EUR/USD breakdown below minor support with 1.1113 key level exposed suggests further downside momentum as French bond weakness persists.
Euro: Energy risks weigh on EUR against US Dollar – MUFG
Energy price shock persistence and investor skepticism on eurozone resilience are offsetting technical improvements in rate differentials, sustaining EUR/USD downside momentum.
Euro: Downside risks persist near key support against US Dollar - ING
EUR/USD downside risks near support suggest USD strength narrative intact; French political uncertainty weighing on euro valuations.