Euro: Key support at 1.1113 in focus against US Dollar – Scotiabank
The Euro is experiencing notable weakness against the US Dollar, as highlighted by Scotiabank's analysts due to deteriorating French bond performance and dismal confidence metrics. With EUR/USD currently trading at 1.1253, the breaking of minor support indicates vulnerability to further declines, specifically towards the critical level at 1.1113. This suggests that ongoing market pressure may intensify if the factors driving the Euro's underperformance continue unabated.
Where it sits in our coverage
Our consensus target for EUR/USD sits at 1.1500 (median across various firms), with Rabobank aligning towards the upper end at 1.1759, while Investec presents a more bearish outlook at 1.1455. Scotiabank's observations reflect ongoing challenges for the Euro, aligning closely with the view that recent performance is concerning.
How firms align
Rabobank and Nomura have higher targets for March 2026, suggesting optimism relative to current levels, while firms like Investec position themselves more conservatively. Notably, Mizuho's stance sits significantly lower at 1.1300. For detailed analysis, refer to our /research/eurusd-ecb-rate-path.
What the data shows
Recent revisions reveal a mixed landscape, with Standard Chartered in the bearish camp lowering their target to 1.1400. This underscores the uncertain sentiment around the Euro, especially in light of the factors contributing to its weakness as covered in our previous research /research/eurusd-ecb-rate-path-2026-10-26.
How firms align with this view
Aligned with the headline view
Contrary positioning
Key takeaways
- 01Key support for EUR/USD now lies at 1.1113.
- 02Track Euro's reaction to the French bond market for potential shifts.
- 03A break below 1.1113 could trigger further declines.
- 04Market sentiment remains cautious amidst poor economic indicators.
Market implications
Watch the upcoming ECB rate decision on October 29, which could further influence EUR/USD dynamics, especially given our consensus target of 1.1500. A failure to hold above 1.1113 might prompt more aggressive positioning from traders.
Risks to this view
Any significant positive economic data from the Eurozone or stronger-than-expected bond performance could rejuvenate the Euro's prospects. Similarly, a surprising hawkish shift from the ECB could alter the current bearish view.
Sentiment by currency
USD+EUR JPY~GBP~Composite USD score: +0.65
Firms mentioned
Sources & References
How we cover this story
Other coverage on this pair
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