Europe’s Pitch Book: Poland - Europe’s quiet overachiever
The desk believes that Poland's economic performance positions it as a key player in the European landscape, often overlooked despite its robust growth metrics, as highlighted in recent commentary by Marieke Blom and Rafal Benecki. With GDP growth averaging over 3.5% annually for the last 25 years and maintaining a stable economy without recession in this century, Poland exemplifies success not often spotlighted in broader European discussions. Per the full note , strengthening attention towards Poland could reshape perceptions of the EU’s economic potential and investment opportunities.
What the desk is arguing
The desk views Poland as a pivotal yet underrated component of Europe's economic narrative. Despite its impressive 3.5% average GDP growth over the past quarter-century and a population of 38 million making it the fifth-largest in the EU, Poland remains underrepresented in discussions about economic success stories across Europe. Per the full note , promoting Poland could help adjust biases favoring larger economies, drawing focus to its noteworthy trajectory.
This economic narrative is further supported by Poland's resilience in the face of potential downturns, avoiding recession while its peers struggled during various crises, including the COVID-19 pandemic. Reports indicate that this economic stability has enabled Poland to attract significant foreign direct investment, thereby bolstering its infrastructure and technological sectors.
Where it sits in our coverage
Our consensus target for EUR/PLN is at 1.075, with a range between 1.04 and 1.12. Notable firm forecasts include: - jpmorgan: 1.10 (Mar26) - bofa: 1.04 (Mar26)
The desk’s view aligns with jpmorgan, which reinforces the bullish outlook on the Polish economy. This stance sits slightly above the lower bound of the forecast range, suggesting a consensus belief that ongoing economic development will drive the currency stronger against the euro.
How other firms see it
The general consensus among aligned firms like jpmorgan suggests a positive outlook for PLN against both the EUR and USD, reflecting an appreciation of Poland's economic resilience. In contrast, firms like bofa take a more cautious approach, indicating potential concerns about external shocks or slower growth.
Key indicators to monitor include Poland’s inflation rates and the activities of the NBP, particularly watching how these influence PLN’s trajectory against the EUR/USD pair as both central banks navigate post-pandemic recovery strategies.
How firms align with this view
Aligned with the desk view
Contrary positioning
Key takeaways
- 01Poland has demonstrated consistent GDP growth over the last 25 years, making it a significant EU economy.
- 02Despite its economic strengths, Poland is underrepresented in discussions about European growth.
- 03The Polish economy has shown resilience during crises, maintaining stability and attracting foreign investment.
- 04Market sentiment is cautiously optimistic for the PLN, driven by strong fundamentals.
Market implications
Watch the EUR/PLN pairing closely, particularly as Poland continues to report economic growth. Current levels suggest potential upward movement toward our consensus forecast of 1.075 as investor sentiment shifts in favor of Eastern European markets.
Risks to this view
Should Poland face unexpected economic challenges—such as rising inflation or geopolitical tensions in the region—this could undermine its current growth narrative, forcing a reevaluation of its currency prospects against the euro.
Opinions Opinion by Marieke Blom and Rafal Benecki Europe’s Pitch Book: Poland - Europe’s quiet overachiever Published 13:51 Poland Europe spends plenty of time discussing its economic laggards, but far less on its success stories. Poland is one of the biggest. Over three decades, it has quietly caught up, building a large, stable and diversified economy.
Yet it rarely takes centre stage in Europe’s economic story. It should Where are we with the Pitch Book? I’ve covered two economic problems, demographics and productivity , and five issues at the intersection of economics, security and sovereignty ( defence , energy , digital technology , trade and the financial landscape ).
In between, I did a few intermezzos on investment and optimism. It’s now time to turn to four countries that I believe we need to understand better if we want to appreciate Europe’s strengths. Each brings something different to the table.
I think of them as members of the European family, with their own unique characteristics and strengths. I’ll be looking at Spain, Italy and Romania later on, but I’m starting with the country I’d characterise as the family’s “quiet overachiever”: Poland. Of all Europe’s economic strengths to pitch, this should really be the easiest sell.
GDP growth has averaged more than 3.5% over the past 25 years. With 38 million inhabitants, it’s the fifth-largest country in the EU by population. And this century, the country has avoided recession.
So it should be front of mind for Europeans as one of the most impressive economic growth stories of this century. The Guardian recently devoted a series to Poland’s ascent . But there is still an attention gap.
Read the Draghi report, make the rounds in Brussels, or talk to European business leaders, and Poland is rarely central to the way we think about Europe. In 2025, The Economist captured the problem neatly, calling Poland “ the ignored stock market superstar ”. As my mission is to help you see Europe through a more positive lens, all I really need to do here is help you see Poland.
But I’ll also cover some of the country's challenges along the way. Poland’s economic rise: building a second Japan The economic rise of Poland began just 36 years ago, after breaking from the Soviet Union era. Its new leader, Lech Walesa, set an ambitious goal, especially given Poland’s starting point: “We will build a second Japan.” Since then, the country has gone through several stages of transformation.
First came bold reforms that shifted the economy from central planning towards market forces. Large-scale privatisation of Poland’s manufacturing sector put managers, rather than politicians, in charge, while avoiding the emergence of an oligarchy. The goal of EU membership was a strong incentive to set up a rules-based market economy.
In 2004, Poland joined the Union, bringing its entrepreneurial spirit into a much larger market. Small and medium-sized businesses began to flourish, but unemployment was still very high, prompting many Poles to seek work abroad and send money home. EU funds helped to finance an infrastructure boom: Poland went from having just hundreds of kilometres of motorways to more than 5,000 today, a tenfold increase.
This helped turn Poland into an attractive, low-cost production base for the European market. European manufacturers like ABB, Siemens and Bosch quickly established production operations in Poland. The automotive sector has become important for the country, but less so than for the Czech Republic and Hungary.
Poland’s manufacturing base is more diversified, and within automotive , the country has become an important hub for battery production, trucks and electric buses. The country has also built up a significant role in transport services, with its truckers capturing a significant share of the European market. Exports have played a crucial role in Poland's economic rise and, at just above 50% of GDP, they are very significant for a country of this size.
Poland’s export profile has also been changing in recent years, with business services becoming an important source of growth. Around half a million people now work in the sector, in areas such as accounting, administration and IT support. The sector has also been moving up the value chain, with Poland increasingly taking on higher-value activities such as engineering and data analytics.
Google, Microsoft, Intel, Samsung and IBM all have R&D operations in the country. Data-centre capacity is also growing rapidly, with companies including Microsoft, Google and Amazon investing in the sector, strengthening Poland’s position in cloud services. Another recent impulse has come from geopolitics.
Poland’s defence industry is growing fast as the country spends about 4.8% of GDP on defence, the highest share in NATO. Polish defence companies work with Ukraine and thus have battlefield experience, providing a foundation for developing the sector into a stronger export industry. At the same time, Poland has changed from a country of emigrants into an important destination for migrants.
Almost two million Ukrainians now live in Poland, about three-quarters of whom are employed. Poland's transformation has been genuinely remarkable, and really is a success story of the European Union, with access to the European market, strong institutions and European cohesion funds all supporting GDP growth. The country is now a member of the G20.
Breaking down the forces behind this long-term growth reveals two powerful drivers: a sharp rise in labour participation (see graph below) and a doubling of productivity per hour worked between 2000 and 2024. Strong increase in labour participation Change in employment rates of older workers and prime-age workers, 2004-24 (percentage-point difference) Source: OECD database Labour Market Statistics by sex and age: employment-population ratio "> Source: OECD database Labour Market Statistics by sex and age: employment-population ratio Poland is a country that the Draghi report really should not have overlooked when calculating the difference in growth between Europe and the US ( reminder : all CEE countries were excluded from the famous analysis of the productivity growth gap). To the surprise of many, Walesa’s ambition was not so far-fetched after all: GDP per capita is now estimated to be similar to Japan’s level in purchasing power terms .
Mission accomplished on building a second Japan GDP per capita in USD at purchasing power parity Source: World Bank "> Source: World Bank Looking ahead Poland’s demographic outlook is less positive. When looking at the gross numbers, the population is expected to shrink. However, the quality of education has improved significantly, while the share of people completing higher education has also risen.
The next phase will have to look different. Poland’s demographics are undeniably becoming less favourable. But that does not automatically mean the end of its convergence story.
The country has already exploited much of the easier route to growth by putting more people to work and working long hours. Future gains will increasingly have to come from the quality rather than the quantity of labour. That is where Poland has something to work with.
About 45% of people currently entering the labour market have a tertiary education, compared with 14% at the start of the century. That is a gigantic leap, but compared to the rest of Europe, it still implies further room to grow. And the next generation suggests there is potential for progress.
Poland’s 15-year-olds perform well above the OECD average in PISA scores . In other words, improvements in the quality of the workforce could compensate for at least some of the decline in its quantity. The old stereotype may need updating: the Polish plumber is increasingly giving way to the Polish PhD.
That also points towards Poland’s natural place in the European economy. It can continue moving up the value chain in digital services, engineering, data and AI R&D, building on its proximity to the technology ecosystems of the Nordics and Baltics. One challenge in that journey is to make sure that more of the value created by Polish talent stays in Poland.
For years, the country has been something of a “dark kitchen” for the European economy: producing excellent products and increasingly sophisticated services behind brands owned elsewhere. The opportunity now is to turn more of that talent into intellectual property, brands and companies of its own. It also requires Polish companies to become more ambitious internationally.
For a long time, rapid growth at home meant there was little need to look elsewhere. While many foreign companies poured money into Poland, outward investment remained low. We’ve looked in depth at this next stage of development, which should involve more outward investment, acquisitions and expansion beyond Poland.
The emergence of Polish-founded companies competing successfully on the international stage shows what that shift could look like. ElevenLabs , for example, leads in AI voice technology and was recently valued at $22bn , while InPost has built a logistics business stretching well beyond Poland’s borders. That is the shift Poland now needs to build on: from being an excellent location for international companies to becoming the home of more international success stories of its own.
There is a similar productivity opportunity among Poland’s SMEs. The entrepreneurial boom that helped drive Poland’s first phase of convergence created a very large population of smaller businesses. The next phase could be about consolidation and scale: stronger management, greater use of technology, and more professional corporate structures.
Large Polish companies are, on average, three times more productive than smaller ones, suggesting that consolidation could provide another route to higher productivity. And with many of the entrepreneurs who built those businesses getting older, this seems to be a logical next step. The next phase will also require a change in how Polish companies finance their growth.
Traditionally, Polish companies have relied heavily on retained earnings, leaving corporate balance sheets remarkably healthy, with very low levels of debt. But greater use of debt and, particularly, equity financing could allow successful firms to invest and expand faster. A deeper venture-capital and private-equity ecosystem could do the same for younger, more innovative companies.
Poland is building the financial infrastructure for this: Innovate Poland is mobilising PLN 4bn for venture-capital and private-equity investment, while the PFR Deep Tech programme aims to provide PLN 600m for advanced technologies. The aim is to create Polish start-ups with the ability to scale. If private-sector balance sheets are a source of strength, Poland’s public finances require more attention.
The government deficit reached 7.3% of GDP in 2025, partially on the back of higher defence spending, but also because of higher public-sector wages and social benefits. Political tensions are significant and bring uncertainty to the investment climate (although Poland is hardly alone among Western democracies in that respect). Some comfort comes from Poland’s constitutional debt ceiling of 60% of GDP.
The domestic definition of public debt is narrower than the standard EU measure, meaning the equivalent threshold on that measure is higher, but the ceiling nevertheless provides a sort of fiscal backstop. For many outsiders, the first risk that comes to mind with Poland is Russia. Geography clearly creates a security risk, and Poland takes that risk extremely seriously.
The most immediate threats are hybrid and cyber in nature: Poland is particularly exposed, but these are increasingly European risks rather than uniquely Polish ones. And it is important to realise that geopolitics cuts both ways. For European companies looking to shorten supply chains or move activities closer to home, Poland combines EU membership, industrial depth, skilled labour and proximity to Western European markets.
The same country that sits on Europe’s eastern flank can also become an increasingly attractive base for friendshoring and nearshoring within the EU. It gives a clear direction for a country starting from a strong base: healthy private balance sheets, a diversified economy and a relatively balanced regional structure, with several cities boasting good universities and strong infrastructure. Poland is also a very safe country, which all helps to support the case for further convergence and a continued move up the value chain.
Claiming a position It’s an amazing success story, but not one that has given Poland a particularly clear profile. The country is not specifically known for one industry or product, partly because that is the flipside of having such a diverse economy and of being something of a “dark kitchen” both in manufacturing and in services. There are not many internationally recognised Polish brands.
It’s not famous for its food (though the dumplings deserve more attention!) nor is it an established tourist destination. In other words, Poland’s economic success may now need a little marketing success to go with it. For the rest of Europe, the message is simple: pay more attention to Poland.
Its continued catch-up potential, combined with its growing digital talent, means Poland’s success can become an increasingly important source of strength for the wider European economy. After 36 years of remarkable progress, it is time to see Poland, Europe’s quiet overachiever, for what it is becoming: a cornerstone of the European family, economically as well as militarily. Content Disclaimer This publication has been prepared by ING solely for information purposes irrespective of a particular user's means, financial situation or investment objectives.
The information does not constitute investment recommendation, and nor is it investment, legal or tax advice or an offer or solicitation to purchase or sell any financial instrument. Read more European Union Share X LinkedIn E-mail Copy link Share X LinkedIn E-mail Copy link Download Share X LinkedIn E-mail Copy link Share X LinkedIn E-mail Copy link Download In this opinion Poland’s economic rise: building a second Japan Looking ahead Claiming a position Authors Marieke Blom Chief Economist and Global Head of Research Marieke Blom is Chief Economist and Global Head of Research at ING Group. Marieke has worked at ING since 2014.
She is a member of the board of the Dutch Royal Economic Society (KVS). She is also a… Rafal Benecki Chief Economist, Poland Rafal Benecki is a Chief Economist at ING in Poland, joining in 2005. Prior to this, he was the head of the Economic Analysis Bureau at Millennium Bank in Warsaw.
He has an MSc in Financial…
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