EUR/USD Price Forecast: Bulls test 1.1700 as RSI turns overbought
The EUR/USD pair is currently testing the 1.1700 mark, with bullish momentum building as technical indicators signal an overbought condition. This scenario raises concerns about potential consolidation or a pullback, especially for those looking to enter longs at these levels. The alignment of the RSI indicates traders may want to profit-take or reassess risk before committing further, given the proximity to critical resistance.
Where it sits in our coverage
Our consensus EUR/USD target stands at 1.1634 (median across 11 firms), with firms like RBC and Investec targeting 1.1700, aligning closely with the recent bullish developments. Other notable targets include Morgan Stanley at 1.2000 and TMG at 1.1447, indicating a varied outlook across the landscape.
How firms align
RBC and Investec share a positive sentiment toward EUR/USD, both targeting 1.1700 for March 2026, paralleling the bullish view seen in the current analysis. However, firms like TMG and Lloyds adopt a more cautious stance, opting for targets below 1.1500, which suggests a divergence in perspectives given the prevailing bullish trend.
What the data shows
Recent forecast revisions reflect differing views, with Deutsche Bank raising its March target to 1.1800, while UOB has lowered its target to 1.1536. Such shifts indicate an ongoing evolution in sentiment; for a deeper dive, refer to our prior insights in /research/eurusd-ecb-rate-path-2026-08-21.
How firms align with this view
Aligned with the headline view
Contrary positioning
Key takeaways
- 01EUR/USD bulls are testing 1.1700; RSI warns of potential overbought conditions.
- 02Traders should consider profit-taking or hedging strategies as momentum shows signs of fatigue.
- 03Key risk level to watch: stability above 1.1700 needed to maintain bullish outlook.
Market implications
Traders should closely monitor the 1.1700 level, as a failure to sustain above it could trigger profit-taking and a potential reversal. Additionally, upcoming ECB events will be critical in shaping market direction, particularly in maintaining bullish sentiment as reflected in our consensus target of 1.1634.
Risks to this view
A move below 1.1600 could invalidate the bullish sentiment, leading to a reassessment of positions. Watch for comments from ECB that may signal a shift in rate policy or economic outlook, which could be a catalyst for driving the euro lower.
Sentiment by currency
USD EUR+JPY~GBP~Composite USD score: -0.30
Sources & References
How we cover this story
Other coverage on this pair
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