EUR/USD Weekly Forecast: US Dollar falls apart, what's next?
The EUR/USD pair is experiencing notable upward momentum, bolstered by a weakening US dollar, which some analysts argue signals a shift in investor risk positioning. With sentiment strongly bearish on the USD, market participants are closely monitoring technical levels for potential stop-loss triggers. The ongoing debate around US economic fundamentals and their impact on Federal Reserve policy adds a layer of uncertainty that could influence future EUR/USD movements significantly.
Where it sits in our coverage
Our consensus EUR/USD target sits at 1.1634 (median across firms), with UBS and Morgan Stanley at the upper bound (1.2000) and Lloyds at the lower bound (1.1200). The narrative from fxstreet.com aligns closely with this upward bias, echoing sentiments shared by firms like RBC and Investec who also project higher targets for March 2026.
How firms align
RBC and Investec both support the bullish outlook reflected in the headline, with Mar26 targets at 1.1600 and 1.1455, respectively. Conversely, Danske Bank's projection of 1.1200 by Mar26 significantly diverges, suggesting bearish sentiment that counters the broader bullish thesis observed in the market.
What the data shows
Recent forecast revisions indicate a bullish trajectory, with firms like Deutsche Bank raising their Mar26 target to 1.1800. Our published research (/research/eurusd-ecb-rate-path-2026-08-21) noted that spot trading is approaching consensus highs, further confirming the prevailing sentiment towards EUR appreciation.
How firms align with this view
Aligned with the headline view
Contrary positioning
Key takeaways
- 01EUR/USD poised for upward movement; sentiment heavily favors EUR.
- 02Watch for technical levels that could trigger volatility.
- 03Key resistance at 1.1700; a break could lead to higher targets.
- 04Lower USD trajectory raises questions about Fed policy adjustments.
Market implications
Investors should watch the 1.1700 resistance level closely, as a breakout could signal further EUR strength. Upcoming economic data from the US and Eurozone could catalyze market movements, especially leading into key central bank announcements.
Risks to this view
Any positive surprises in US economic data could challenge the prevailing bearish USD sentiment, potentially reversing short-term gains for the EUR/USD pair. Federal Reserve comments on interest rates could also shift positioning significantly.
Sentiment by currency
USD EUR+JPY~GBP~Composite USD score: -0.45
Sources & References
How we cover this story
Other coverage on this pair
EUR/USD Price Forecast: Bulls test 1.1700 as RSI turns overbought
EUR/USD momentum approaching 1.1700 with overbought technicals suggests potential consolidation risk for longs above current levels.
Euro: PMI strength supports against US Dollar – BBH
Strong eurozone PMI data provides technical support to EUR/USD and reduces near-term USD strength narrative.