EUR/USD Price Forecast: Consolidates above 1.1350 pivotal support as bearish bias persists
The EUR/USD pair experiences consolidation above the pivotal support level of 1.1350, which marks a crucial threshold for traders. Despite this stability, a prevailing bearish sentiment persists, indicating that the USD remains robust in its valuation. The market psychology driven by economic indicators and interest rate expectations underscores the necessity for a decisive move above recent resistance to shift the current trading narrative. If the euro fails to break above 1.1500 convincingly, the bearish bias could continue to dominate.
Where it sits in our coverage
Our consensus EUR/USD target currently stands at 1.1700 (median across 11 firms), with Morgan Stanley presenting the most optimistic view at 1.2000 for March 2026, while Lloyds remains more conservative with a target of 1.1331. In contrast, firms like RBC and Nomura are aligned towards the upper band of the consensus, while SocGen's view is more aligned with the broader market at 1.1700.
How firms align
Morgan Stanley's bullish stance at 1.2000 for March 2026 contrasts sharply with FXStreet's more cautious view of the current bearish bias persisting. Notably, RBC and Nomura also support a more optimistic outlook, pushing towards the upper targets of 1.1700-1.2000 based on their recent analyses. For detailed views, see /reports/morganstanley and /reports/rbc.
What the data shows
Recent forecast revisions illustrate a slight upward adjustment across several firms, with BofA's target rising to 1.1700 for March 2026, indicating market optimism. Our internal research findings highlight expectations for potential corrections based on shifts in ECB policy, as discussed in /research/eurusd-ecb-rate-path-2026-09-27.
How firms align with this view
Aligned with the headline view
Contrary positioning
Key takeaways
- 01EUR/USD remains above 1.1350, reflecting a consolidation phase amid bearish sentiment.
- 02Traders should watch for a decisive break above 1.1500 to shift market bias.
- 03The consensus target at 1.1700 suggests room for correction as forecasts adjust upward.
- 04Risks include unexpected ECB policy shifts, which could re-align market sentiment.
Market implications
The next critical levels to monitor are the support at 1.1350 and resistance just above 1.1500. Additionally, upcoming ECB meetings and U.S. economic data releases could act as catalysts for price movements, especially given our consensus target of 1.1700.
Risks to this view
A significant reversal in sentiment could occur if the euro breaks below 1.1350, signaling a shift in the market's assessment of Eurozone economic stability. Moreover, any dovish signals from the ECB or strong U.S. economic indicators may further challenge the euro's strength.
Sentiment by currency
USD+EUR JPY~GBP~Composite USD score: +0.55
Sources & References
How we cover this story
Other coverage on this pair
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