EUR/USD selloff gathers steam — Can bulls find a lifeline?
The ongoing selloff in EUR/USD is intensifying, undermining bullish sentiment as price action hovers around critical support levels. Recent momentum suggests a potential technical breakdown, which may trigger stop-loss orders and exacerbate the downdraft for the euro. Market players are closely examining whether aggressive selling can be stemmed and whether bulls can secure a foothold before further downside is realized.
Where it sits in our coverage
Our consensus EUR/USD target stands at 1.1700, as both SocGen and Nomura align with this level, while RBC and CIBC forecast a somewhat more positive bias at 1.1600 and 1.1866, respectively. In contrast, TMGM maintains a more pessimistic view, holding its targets at 1.1447 through to December 2026, marking a divergence from the bullish outlook expressed by other firms.
How firms align
Alignment with the bearish sentiment is seen with TMGM, which forecasts 1.1450 for Dec26, closely matching the current spot price and supporting the perspective that any bullish recovery is currently squashed. Meanwhile, SocGen and RBC offer targets at 1.1700, hinting at a more optimistic view that diverges noticeably from the present bearish trend evident from price action.
What the data shows
Recent forecast adjustments point towards a general bearish stance, with Bank of America recently downgrading its Dec26 target to 1.1500 from a higher 1.1700. This revision adds weight to the growing consensus from reports like /research/eurusd-ecb-rate-path-2026-09-27 that highlight the divergence between current spot levels and projected targets, with market sentiment heavily favoring the dollar.
How firms align with this view
Aligned with the headline view
Contrary positioning
Key takeaways
- 01EUR/USD selloff escalates as spot trades at 1.1446, breaching key support.
- 02Technical breakdown risks amplifying USD strength amid stop-loss triggers.
- 03Watch for critical support at 1.1400; a break could lead to deeper losses.
- 04Bullish targets around 1.1700 seem increasingly out of reach.
Market implications
Next, traders should closely monitor the 1.1400 support level. A decisive breach could lead to further selling pressure, reinforcing bullish positioning in USD. With our consensus target of 1.1700 still providing a distant beacon for bullish hopes, the calendar and market sentiment will be pivotal in determining near-term direction.
Risks to this view
A reversal in this bearish sentiment could occur if inflation data triggers a market re-evaluation of ECB's policy positioning, particularly if hawkish signals arise unexpectedly. Watch for upcoming economic releases that might shift the narrative.
Sentiment by currency
USD+EUR JPY~GBP~Composite USD score: +0.65
Sources & References
How we cover this story
Other coverage on this pair
EUR/USD: Inflation-driven stabilisation hopes – ING
Eurozone inflation stabilization narrative supports EUR/USD recovery trajectory; watch for divergence if ECB maintains restrictive policy stance longer than consensus.
EUR/USD Price Forecast: Consolidates above 1.1350 pivotal support as bearish bias persists
Consolidation above 1.1350 with persistent bearish bias suggests USD strength remains intact unless EUR breaks resistance decisively.
EUR/USD Weekly Forecast: The Dollar takes back control
USD momentum reassertion suggests EUR/USD momentum traders repositioning into dollar strength; watch for technical break below 1.08 if buying persists.