FX BANK FORECAST · COVERAGE
Aggregated year-end forecasts, scenario shifts, and curated analyst notes from 36 institutional desks. No promotion.
The EUR/USD pair has seen a corrective dip, yet the underlying bullish trend remains firmly intact. As highlighted by the forecast, this pullback is viewed as a potential opportunity for tactical long positions. With the current spot at 1.1446, the market sentiment remains skewed towards the euro, emphasizing the resilience of this upward move in the face of short-term fluctuations.
Our consensus EUR/USD target stands at 1.1700 (median across 8 firms), with Deutsche Bank at the upper range (1.1800) and Lloyds at the lower end (1.1331). The perspective from FXStreet aligns well with the bullish consensus, reinforcing the view of ongoing upward momentum despite recent pullbacks in price.
Specific firms such as RBC, which projects 1.1600 for Mar26, and Investec at 1.1455, share a bullish stance that is consistent with the headline. Conversely, firms like Lloyds, with a Mar26 target of 1.1331, are positioned more conservatively against this bullish sentiment.
Recent forecast revisions show ING maintaining a March target of 1.1700 while Rabobank revised their March target up to 1.1759, indicating robust confidence in the euro's strength. Our published research, particularly /research/eurusd-ecb-rate-path-2026-08-26, highlights the consensus around future movements for EUR/USD with the spot sitting at 1.1652 compared to the median target of 1.17.
How firms align with this view
Aligned with the headline view
Contrary positioning
Key takeaways
Market implications
Traders should monitor the EUR/USD levels closely, particularly the resistance around 1.1700. Upcoming economic data releases and ECB signals could further confirm this bullish outlook, aligning with our consensus target.
Risks to this view
A stronger-than-expected U.S. economic performance or a shift in ECB policy could invalidate the bullish view. A dip below the 1.1331 range would also raise concerns about the sustainability of the current upward trajectory.
Sentiment by currency
USD EUR+JPY~GBP~Composite USD score: -0.35
How we cover this story
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Mixed US PCE reduces Fed rate-cut conviction, supporting USD carry flows and widening the rate differential favoring dollar positioning.
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EUR/USD spot sits at 1.1652, just 0.41% below the 30-firm median Dec-26 target of 1.17, but a 0.14 range separates the most bullish and bearish desks.
EUR/USD spot sits just 0.22% below the 30-firm Dec-26 consensus of 1.17, yet a 0.14 dispersion range signals deep disagreement on the path.
EUR/USD spot sits at 1.1663, just 0.32% below the 30-firm median Dec-26 target of 1.17, masking a 0.14 range of dispersion across the panel.