EUR/USD Price Forecast: Holds key 100-day SMA at start of the US CPI week
The EUR/USD pair is currently holding at 1.1446, maintaining its position just above the critical 100-day simple moving average as traders anticipate the upcoming US CPI data. This week is pivotal, as inflation data could shape expectations for future Federal Reserve actions and impact the euro's trajectory. The current stability around the 100-day SMA suggests a potential consolidation period for the pair ahead of these important economic indicators.
Where it sits in our coverage
Our consensus EUR/USD target stands at 1.1700 (median across various firms), indicating some bullish sentiment compared to the current spot. RBC has the highest target at 1.2000 for March 2026, while Lloyds presents a more cautious stance with a target of 1.1331 for the same time frame.
How firms align
Current targets from RBC and ING align closely with the optimistic outlook captured in the headline, as they reflect 1.1600 and 1.1700 respectively for March 2026. Conversely, Lloyds remains more conservative, suggesting a lower target in that timeframe. For more details, see our reports on these firms: /reports/rbc, /reports/ing, and /reports/lloyds.
What the data shows
Recent revisions from UBS and stanchart indicate a more bullish outlook, with UBS forecasting 1.2000 by March 2026, which supports a more positive sentiment for the currency pair. Further insights can be found in our research /research/eurusd-ecb-rate-path-2026-09-05, highlighting the current trends in the EUR/USD landscape.
How firms align with this view
Aligned with the headline view
Contrary positioning
Key takeaways
- 01EUR/USD at 1.1446, testing 100-day SMA ahead of US CPI data.
- 02A critical level to watch is 1.1500 for potential momentum shifts.
- 03US CPI release on (insert date) could catalyze significant moves.
- 04Market sentiment remains cautious, yet targets trend towards 1.1700.
Market implications
Traders should keep an eye on the 1.1500 level as a potential pivot point. Additionally, the upcoming US CPI release is crucial and could drive EUR/USD closer to our consensus target of 1.1700, depending on the data results.
Risks to this view
A disappointing CPI outcome could reverse the bullish sentiment and push EUR/USD below the 1.1400 level, invalidating the current positive outlook. Federal Reserve signals indicating a more aggressive tightening policy could also create downward pressure on the euro.
Sentiment by currency
USD~EUR~JPY~GBP~Composite USD score: +0.00
Sources & References
How we cover this story
Other coverage on this pair
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