EUR/USD Price Forecast: Holds steady below 1.1700 as overbought momentum tempers further gains
The EUR/USD pair is currently trading at 1.1446, remaining well below the 1.1700 threshold as momentum signals indicate overbought conditions. Analysts suggest that the lack of upward pressure may limit the pair's potential for significant gains in the near term. Meanwhile, a range of forecasts from various firms reflects a divided outlook, with consensus peaking at 1.1800 for June 2026. This divergence underscores uncertainty in the eurozone's economic recovery, making the current price action critical for traders.
Where it sits in our coverage
Our consensus EUR/USD target sits at 1.1677 (median across 11 firms), with Morgan Stanley at the upper bound (1.2000) and Lloyds at the lower (1.1331). The current pricing suggests traders are cautious, with position limits around the 1.1700 area.
How firms align
Firms like Investec and Nomura have set their targets at 1.1700 for March 2026, which aligns with the cautious positioning expressed in the headline. Meanwhile, others like Rabobank have a slightly more optimistic view at 1.1759 for the same period, reflecting differing outlooks on the euro's strength.
What the data shows
Recent revisions indicate a gradual upward adjustment in targets, with firms like Deutsche Bank forecasting 1.1800 by March 2026. This aligns with our recent published research indicating increasing consensus around 1.16 as a pivotal level (/research/eurusd-ecb-rate-path-2026-08-23).
How firms align with this view
Aligned with the headline view
Contrary positioning
Key takeaways
- 01EUR/USD holding below 1.1700 reflects overbought momentum concerns.
- 02Traders need to watch for resistance around this threshold.
- 03A break above 1.1700 could signal a shift in market sentiment.
- 04Diverse firm targets show uncertainty in euro recovery trajectory.
Market implications
Next week’s ECB meeting is pivotal; traders should monitor for any guidance on interest rate paths. Our consensus number of 1.1677 will also be key as a reference point for potential price action.
Risks to this view
If inflation data from the eurozone comes in stronger than expected, it could trigger a rapid shift in ECB policy, invalidating current bearish sentiment and pushing euro prices higher.
Sentiment by currency
USD~EUR~JPY~GBP~Composite USD score: +0.00
Sources & References
How we cover this story
Other coverage on this pair
Euro: Recovery against US Dollar supported by data – BBH
Recent Eurozone data momentum is underpinning EUR/USD recovery from lows, reducing near-term USD safe-haven bid.
Euro: Further gains eyed toward 1.1800 against US Dollar – UOB
EUR/USD technical target of 1.1800 suggests directional bias toward euro strength; traders should monitor resistance levels and macro catalysts driving momentum.
EUR/USD Price Forecast: Corrects further as US Dollar extends recovery
USD strength momentum extends EUR/USD correction, likely testing technical support levels watched by systematic traders and hedge funds.