EUR/USD Price Forecast: Next move hinges on US NFP data
The EUR/USD pair currently stands at 1.1446, with expectations set to shift significantly following the upcoming US Non-Farm Payroll (NFP) data. Market participants are anxiously awaiting this crucial report, as it could provide fresh impetus for either the euro or dollar, potentially steering the currency pair either towards its near-term consensus target of 1.1700 or leading it back south. The data from the NFP will be pivotal in gauging the strength of the US labor market, further influencing Federal Reserve interest rate expectations.
Where it sits in our coverage
Our consensus EUR/USD target sits at 1.1700 (median across 11 firms), with Citigroup at the upper bound (1.2200) and Lloyds at the lower (1.1200). fxstreet.com's outlook suggests an alignment with this consensus, emphasizing the significance of upcoming data.
How firms align
Both BofA and ANZ share a more cautious stance with their targets for March 2026 at 1.1700 and 1.1609, respectively, positioning them moderately below the headline's forecast context. Conversely, firms like SocGen and RBK are more optimistic with targets of 1.1700 and 1.1600 for the same tenor, supporting the more bullish sentiment implied by the headline.
What the data shows
Recent forecast revisions highlight BofA's and ANZ's adjustments towards a more conservative viewpoint for March 2026, now forecasting 1.1700 and 1.1609. This reflects a cautious sentiment that may align closely with market expectations leading to the NFP release, seen in our recent insights like /research/eurusd-ecb-rate-path.
How firms align with this view
Aligned with the headline view
Contrary positioning
Key takeaways
- 01Current EUR/USD at 1.1446, with a consensus target of 1.1700.
- 02NFP data anticipated to provide a directional cue for the pair.
- 03A better-than-expected NFP could lift USD strength, challenging current EUR levels.
Market implications
Post NFP, traders should pay close attention to the 1.1450-1.1500 range, which could become pivotal if the data surprises. A movement beyond this level could signal a test of the consensus target at 1.1700.
Risks to this view
A disappointing NFP could undermine the dollar's strength, invalidating the bullish EUR sentiment. If payroll growth falls significantly below expectations, we could see the EUR/USD pair regain upward momentum.
Sentiment by currency
USD~EUR~JPY~GBP~Composite USD score: +0.00
Sources & References
How we cover this story
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