EUR/USD Price Forecast: Remains sideways ahead of key US events
The EUR/USD pair is currently trading at 1.1446, maintaining a sideways movement as market participants await key US events that could influence monetary policy and market sentiment. This uncertainty is reflected in the neutral sentiment towards both the euro and the dollar. As we dissect the outlook, the consensus targets suggest a potential upward bias with various firms projecting higher values for the pair later in the year, indicating that traders are not entirely bearish despite the current stagnation.
Where it sits in our coverage
Our consensus EUR/USD target stands at 1.1700 (median across multiple firms), with forecasts ranging from a low of 1.1200 to a high of 1.2000. This illustrates a notable divergence among market participants, with firms like Morgan Stanley targeting 1.2000 by March 2026, while others like Standard Chartered project a more conservative 1.1400.
How firms align
Morgan Stanley and UBS provide the most aggressive forecasts, both aligning with our consensus at 1.2000 for March 2026. Conversely, firms like Lloyds and Danske Bank present lower targets, with Lloyds at 1.1331, suggesting a more cautious stance in the current environment. [See our detailed analysis in /research/eurusd-ecb-rate-path].
What the data shows
Recent forecast revisions indicate an upward adjustment, particularly from ING, which now forecasts 1.1700 for March 2026—a substantial shift upwards from their previous targets. This sentiment is echoed in our earlier published insights highlighting the discrepancy between current spot prices and analyst forecasts, such as those in /research/eurusd-ecb-rate-path-2026-08-24.
How firms align with this view
Aligned with the headline view
Contrary positioning
Key takeaways
- 01EUR/USD is currently at 1.1446, showing limited movement ahead of US data.
- 02Market remains neutral, but some firms project significant upside in the medium term.
- 03Watch key US events this week that could shift sentiment and trading levels.
Market implications
Investors should monitor the upcoming US economic data, including GDP and employment figures, as potential catalysts for movement in the EUR/USD pair. Staying aligned with the consensus target of 1.1700 will be critical for traders moving forward.
Risks to this view
A reversal in this outlook could occur if US data points to stronger-than-expected economic recovery, leading to speculation about tighter monetary policy and a stronger dollar. This could challenge the upper targets set by our aligned firms.
Sentiment by currency
USD~EUR~JPY~GBP~Composite USD score: +0.00
Sources & References
How we cover this story
Other coverage on this pair
EUR/USD Price Forecast: Declines to near 1.1650, overbought signals curb upside bias
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Morning briefing: EUR/USD needs a sustained move above 1.1700 to regain upside momentum
Euro: Upside limited above fair value against US Dollar – Scotiabank
EUR/USD faces technical resistance near fair value; Scotiabank's valuation framework suggests limited upside, supporting USD strength thesis.