Morning briefing: EUR/USD needs a sustained move above 1.1700 to regain upside momentum
The EUR/USD pair remains under pressure, with the latest briefing indicating that a sustained move above 1.1700 is critical to regain any upside momentum. Currently at 1.1446, the currency pair struggles to break the stagnation as market sentiment remains neutral across the board. The failure to hold above this key level not only creates a technical hurdle but also reflects broader economic uncertainties that could impede growth prospects for the Eurozone against the U.S. dollar.
Where it sits in our coverage
Our consensus EUR/USD target currently stands at 1.1700 (median across firms), with targets ranging from 1.1200 to 1.2000 among various institutions. The tight clustering around the mid-point suggests a cautious optimism, albeit with clear signs of hesitation amid current market conditions.
How firms align
ING and Nomura both project a March 2026 target of 1.1700, aligning with the headline's critical level, while firms like HSBC and Stanchart take a slightly more conservative stance, forecasting 1.1700 and 1.1400 respectively. This division illustrates the uncertainty surrounding the Euro's path, particularly as recent adjustments have shown a mixed bag of sentiment in the market.
What the data shows
Recent revisions reflect a modest recalibration, with ING holding steady at 1.1700 while other firms like UOB have revised down to 1.1536. Insights from our research, particularly /research/eurusd-ecb-rate-path-2026-08-24, highlight divergence signals that could further inform the Euro's movement against the dollar.
How firms align with this view
Aligned with the headline view
Contrary positioning
Key takeaways
- 01EUR/USD must breach 1.1700 to restore bullish sentiment.
- 02Technical resistance noted at 1.1700 crucial for traders.
- 03Focus remains on risk sentiment amid economic uncertainty.
Market implications
Next week’s ECB meeting will be crucial in determining the Euro's direction. A breach above the 1.1700 level could signal a rally toward higher targets, particularly as per our consensus target.
Risks to this view
A failure to maintain above the current levels, particularly below 1.1400, could prompt a reevaluation of forecasts, especially if U.S. economic data strengthens and supports the dollar.
Sentiment by currency
USD~EUR~JPY~GBP~Composite USD score: +0.00
Sources & References
How we cover this story
Other coverage on this pair
EUR/USD Price Forecast: Declines to near 1.1650, overbought signals curb upside bias
Technical overbought conditions in EUR/USD suggest mean-reversion downside to 1.1650 as key support level.
EUR/USD Price Forecast: Remains sideways ahead of key US events
Euro: Upside limited above fair value against US Dollar – Scotiabank
EUR/USD faces technical resistance near fair value; Scotiabank's valuation framework suggests limited upside, supporting USD strength thesis.