EUR/USD Price Forecast: Under pressure with YTD lows at 1.1324 coming closer
The EUR/USD pair is navigating downward pressure as it inches closer to the year-to-date lows at 1.1324, driven by a generally supportive environment for the USD amidst rising US Treasury yields and softening economic signals from the Eurozone. The market appears to be pricing in a divergence in monetary policy trajectories, with the Federal Reserve possibly maintaining a hawkish stance. If the support at 1.1324 fails, further downside momentum could solidify, prompting traders to reevaluate their positions significantly.
Where it sits in our coverage
Our consensus EUR/USD target currently stands at 1.1600 (median across various firms), indicating a bearish sentiment, especially as we approach the pivotal levels identified in our analysis. The range of firm targets showcases varied expectations: Commerzbank pushes the upper limit at 1.1900 while JPMorgan projects a lower boundary at 1.1300 for March 2026.
How firms align
Commerzbank holds a target of 1.1900 for March 2026, which is notably optimistic compared to the bearish view highlighted by BofA at 1.1240. This divergence underscores a disparity in outlooks among different institutions when it comes to the EUR's resilience against the dollar. A more detailed analysis can be found in our coverage of forecasts and potential reversals at /research/eurusd-ecb-rate-path-2026-07-28.
What the data shows
Recent revisions point toward a consensus that has become cautiously bearish with significant firms revising their targets lower. The recent report on the ECB rate path highlights these adjustments as critical to understanding upcoming pressures, referenced extensively in our insights on the euro's trajectory at /research/fomc-decision-preview-2026-07-29.
How firms align with this view
Aligned with the headline view
Contrary positioning
Key takeaways
- 01EUR/USD hovering just above YTD lows at 1.1419, with market sentiment shifting and technical levels in focus.
- 02Chart watchers eye the critical support level at 1.1324; a break could feed further selling pressure.
- 03Upcoming economic releases and ECB signals could redefine market alignments, especially with Fed rate decisions approaching.
- 04Traders should remain vigilant around CPI releases and any ECB commentary that may signal shifts in monetary policy.
Market implications
Traders should monitor the EUR/USD as it approaches the 1.1324 support level; a breach of this could catalyze a more aggressive move towards key lower targets. Additionally, upcoming calendar events, particularly the Fed's rate decision, may further inform the direction of the pair. Our consensus remains at 1.1600, which may not hold if bearish momentum accelerates below current technical support.
Risks to this view
The prevailing view could be invalidated if there are unexpected hawkish signals from the ECB or if macroeconomic indicators suggest above-expected resilience in the Eurozone economy. A strong bounce back above 1.1500 would necessitate a reassessment of the current bearish stance toward the euro.
Sentiment by currency
USD+EUR JPY~GBP~Composite USD score: +0.60
Sources & References
How we cover this story
Other coverage on this pair
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