Weekly forex forecast: EUR/USD, XAU/USD, GBP/USD, USD/JPY, Bitcoin and more [Video]
The forex market anticipates a pivotal shift in the coming week, with key pairs like EUR/USD, GBP/USD, and gold taking center stage as traders navigate upcoming economic data. The outlook for the Euro remains optimistic as organizations revise their forecasts upward, hinting at potential strength against the dollar. With the euro currently trading at 1.1419, the convergence of optimistic target revisions suggests market participants are positioning for a bullish trend, particularly ahead of pivotal central bank meetings.
Where it sits in our coverage
Our current consensus for EUR/USD stands at 1.1700 (median across 12 firms), with Commerzbank and Morgan Stanley at the upper end of the range (1.2000), while TMG and BofA remain more conservative with targets closer to 1.1450 and 1.1700 respectively. This aligns with the broader bullish sentiment implied in the fxstreet.com video forecast, indicating a positive bias among analysts.
How firms align
Firms like Commerzbank and Morgan Stanley reflect the bullish outlook seen in the video, with targets for March 2026 at 1.1900 and 1.2000 respectively. In contrast, BofA's recent revision to 1.1700 reflects a more cautious stance, suggesting divergence among firms regarding the euro's resiliency against the dollar.
What the data shows
Recent forecast modifications across multiple firms like BofA and HSBC have shifted toward more optimistic targets, signaling a growing confidence in EUR strength. For a detailed examination of these revisions, our recent insights can be found at /research/eurusd-ecb-rate-path-2026-07-26.
How firms align with this view
Aligned with the headline view
Contrary positioning
Key takeaways
- 01EUR/USD currently trades at 1.1419, above forecasts from multiple firms.
- 02A bullish trend is emerging ahead of key central bank decisions.
- 03Expect volatility around rate decisions with targets still spreading wide.
- 04Target revisions signal strengthening sentiment towards the euro.
Market implications
Traders should closely monitor levels around 1.1700 and upcoming central bank announcements, particularly the ECB and Fed meetings scheduled for late July. This consensus number could serve as a psychological barrier for the euro heading into the week.
Risks to this view
A stronger-than-expected Fed signal or disappointing eurozone data could derail the bullish outlook and lead to a swift correction in EUR/USD. Key catalysts include inflation reports and any shifts in the Fed's tightening strategy.
Sentiment by currency
USD~EUR~JPY~GBP~Composite USD score: +0.00
Sources & References
How we cover this story
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