Gold rejected at 4,700, EUR/USD corrects, GBP/USD stays bullish [Video]
Recent market movements reveal a rebound in the USD alongside corrections in EUR/USD, suggesting underlying strength in the dollar. This coincides with gold struggling at resistance levels around 4,700, indicating a potential market shift towards risk aversion. Despite this backdrop, GBP/USD shows resilience, highlighting a divergence in positioning amongst major currency pairs that bears watching as the dust settles.
Where it sits in our coverage
Our consensus EUR/USD target sits at 1.1700 (median across 12 firms), with UBS at the upper bound (1.2000) and Lloyds at the lower (1.1331). The current spot at 1.1446 reflects a cautious market, suggesting traders are aligning with a bearish outlook as the dollar strengthens amidst a risk-off attitude.
How firms align
ING and RBC indicate a bullish long-term outlook with targets of 1.1700 in March 2026, while Morgan Stanley has set a notably higher target of 1.2000 for the same period. Conversely, firms like Lloyds and Danskebank are less optimistic, forecasting 1.1331 and 1.1866, respectively, pointing to a mixed sentiment within our consensus. Further insights can be found in our recent reports on these alignments: /research/eurusd-ecb-rate-path-2026-08-27 and /research/eurusd-ecb-rate-path-2026-08-26.
What the data shows
In the past two weeks, several firms have revised their forecasts, with Morgan Stanley adjusting their March target higher to 1.2000, indicating a shift towards a more bullish outlook. This aligns with our findings in /research/eurusd-ecb-rate-path where the consensus remains steady against this supportive backdrop.
How firms align with this view
Aligned with the headline view
Contrary positioning
Key takeaways
- 01USD strength emerges as EUR/USD corrects; current spot at 1.1446.
- 02Gold rejection at 4,700 signifies potential risk-off sentiment.
- 03GBP/USD resilience shows stark contrasts against EUR/USD correction.
- 04Pay close attention to ECB decisions impacting EUR/USD positioning.
Market implications
Next key levels to watch are 1.1300 for support in EUR/USD, which could confirm a bearish trend, or 1.1700 if recovery attempts gain traction. The upcoming ECB meeting is also a pivotal event that may influence direction as traders reassess monetary policy impact.
Risks to this view
A sudden rise in economic data from the Eurozone, or aggressive ECB action could invalidate the current bearish stance on EUR/USD. Additionally, a significant drop in US yields might reduce USD strength, eroding confidence in this outlook.
Sentiment by currency
USD+EUR JPY~GBP~Composite USD score: +0.30
Sources & References
How we cover this story
Other coverage on this pair
Euro: Range phase caps recent advance against US Dollar – UOB
Euro: ECB hike view supports range against US Dollar - Danske Bank
ECB rate hike expectations provide structural support for EUR/USD range, reducing downside vulnerability to USD strength.
EUR/USD Price Forecast: Buyers remain in charge above the 200-day SMA
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Euro retreats below 1.1650 as inflation data buoys US Dollar ahead of Jackson Hole
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Cross-firm research
EUR/USD Consensus Check: Spot at 1.1649, Median Target 1.17 — Week of August 28, 2026
EUR/USD spot sits 0.44% below the 30-firm median Dec-26 target of 1.17, with a 0.14 dispersion range exposing deep disagreement on the Fed-ECB terminal gap.
EUR/USD Consensus Check: Spot at 1.1652 vs 1.17 Median, Week of Aug 27 2026
EUR/USD spot of 1.1652 sits just 0.41% below the 30-firm Dec-26 median of 1.17, masking a 0.14 range between Citi's 1.10 floor and Nordea's 1.24 ceiling.
EUR/USD Consensus Check: Spot at 1.1652, Median Target 1.17 — Week of August 26, 2026
EUR/USD spot sits at 1.1652, just 0.41% below the 30-firm median Dec-26 target of 1.17, but a 0.14 range separates the most bullish and bearish desks.