EUR/USD struggles to break free from its bearish spell
The EUR/USD currency pair continues to face downward pressure, struggling to escape its recent bearish trend. Technical indicators are signaling weakness, notably with the pair settling below both the 100 and 200 simple moving averages on the 4-hour chart. Current focus remains on the critical support level around 1.1110, which could be pivotal in determining the short-term direction for the euro against the dollar.
Where it sits in our coverage
Our consensus EUR/USD target stands at 1.1500 (median across firms), reflecting a relatively stable outlook despite recent bearish movements. RaboBank's estimate is at the higher end (1.1759), while HSBC sits lower at 1.1000, showcasing a disparity among forecasts.
How firms align
RBC is positioned near the consensus with a target of 1.1700 for March 26, aligning with the current bearish sentiment noted, whereas Lloyds presents a more cautious target of 1.1331. For a closer reference, see /research/eurusd-ecb-rate-path-2026-11-01.
What the data shows
Recent updates from banks such as UBS, which raised its March target to 1.2000, illustrate the range of views on the euro's future performance. Notably, Danskebank's low target of 1.1866 suggests growing concern over further declines, related to the ECB's rate decisions noted in past reports, such as /research/ecb-decision-2026-10-29-recap.
How firms align with this view
Aligned with the headline view
Contrary positioning
Key takeaways
- 01EUR/USD remains below key moving averages, pointing to technical weakness.
- 02Traders should pay close attention to 1.1110 support level.
- 03A break below 1.1110 could signal further downside risks.
- 04Consensus targets widely vary, signaling mixed sentiment among analysts.
Market implications
Upcoming events such as ECB meetings and economic data releases will be crucial for euro sentiment, especially as traders eye the 1.1110 level for signs of stability or further decline. The consensus target of 1.1500 remains an important reference point in these discussions.
Risks to this view
Any significant shift in ECB policy or unexpected economic data could quickly invalidate the current bearish outlook. Specifically, a surprise rate hike or dovish guidance from key policymakers could propel the euro back towards stronger levels.
Sentiment by currency
USD+EUR JPY~GBP~Composite USD score: +0.30
Sources & References
How we cover this story
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