EUR/USD Weekly Forecast: Greenback holds firm despite looming US political stalemate
The EUR/USD pair has been trading at 1.1140, struggling under the weight of heightened USD demand amidst a backdrop of political uncertainty in the U.S. This range-bound behavior near the 1.1200 mark suggests a bearish outlook for the euro, particularly as risk sentiment remains fragile. The market is interpreting the strength of the greenback as a safe haven response to these looming political challenges, making a breakdown increasingly probable as investor caution prevails.
Where it sits in our coverage
Our consensus EUR/USD target is currently set at 1.1450 (median across 11 firms), with RBC holding the upper bound at 1.2000 and HSBC at the lower end with 1.1000. The current trading level reflects a significant bearish tilt, positioning us well below our consensus expectations following the recent ECB decisions outlined in our previous analyses.
How firms align
Firms like Investec and Mizuho are maintaining a more cautious approach with targets at 1.1455 and 1.1300 respectively, aligning with the bearish sentiment highlighted in the headline. Conversely, Commerzbank targets 1.2000, indicating a more optimistic perspective on euro strength that conflicts with the current market sentiment, as noted in our recent research.
What the data shows
Recent forecast revisions have been bullish from some firms; for instance, UBS revised their March 2026 target to 1.2000, suggesting a divergence from the immediate bearish outlook. Insights from /research/eurusd-ecb-rate-path-2026-11-04 highlight the current spot trading at 1.1248, reinforcing the consensus of 1.1450 and indicating potential for shifts in investor sentiment.
Key takeaways
- 01EUR/USD trades at 1.1140, below 1.1200 support, suggesting increased bearish pressure.
- 02Safe-haven USD demand reflects wider market sentiment; traders should remain cautious.
- 03Risk of a significant breakdown grows if political uncertainties deepen, potentially testing 1.1000.
- 04Monitoring ECB communications will be crucial as we head towards year-end.
Market implications
Next week, pay attention to potential shifts in U.S. political developments that could further impact the USD's strength. The consensus target remains at 1.1450, but further risks may push the pair towards 1.1000, making those levels critical for positioning.
Risks to this view
This view could be invalidated if unexpected political resolutions in the U.S. lead to a rapid strengthening of the euro, potentially reclaiming levels above 1.1200 or any strong data from the eurozone that reinforces economic resilience may shift sentiment away from the dollar.
Sentiment by currency
USD+EUR JPY~GBP~Composite USD score: +0.35
Sources & References
How we cover this story
Other coverage on this pair
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