Morning briefing: EUR/USD could slip towards 1.1100
The USD is poised for potential gains as the Dollar Index is likely to test a pivotal level at 102.10, amidst expectations that the EUR/USD may slip towards 1.1100. Today's Non-Farm Payroll (NFP) data will be crucial, serving as a determinant for the dollar's strength and the euro's trajectory. Given the prevailing sentiment of bearishness towards the euro, attention will be on how employment numbers impact market perceptions, especially considering the current spot of EUR/USD at 1.1253. A breach of the DXY level could trigger renewed selling pressure on the euro.
Where it sits in our coverage
Our consensus EUR/USD target currently sits at 1.1500 (median across 12 firms), with firms such as CIBC and Commerzbank projecting higher targets, at 1.1866 and 1.1900 for March 2026 respectively. In contrast, the lower end of the spectrum is represented by HSBC and Investec, who target 1.1000 and 1.1455 at the same tenor.
How firms align
CIBC's target of 1.1866 is indicative of a bullish outlook that contrasts with the headline's bearish tone, while Commerzbank also aligns towards a higher target of 1.1900. For a contrary view, Investec's lower target of 1.1455 suggests a more cautious stance on EUR/USD's near-term movement.
What the data shows
Recent revisions show UBS has raised their EUR target significantly to 1.2000 by March 2026, indicating a more optimistic perspective amid recent fluctuations. Explore more insights in our related coverage at /research/eurusd-ecb-rate-path-2026-11-04.
How firms align with this view
Aligned with the headline view
Contrary positioning
Key takeaways
- 01USD strength hinges on today's NFP data; watch for 102.10 break in DXY.
- 02Focus on a potential slide in EUR/USD towards 1.1100.
- 03Risk of a deeper dip in EUR/USD if NFP disappoints and DXY breaks key support.
- 04Current sentiment indicates bears are watching closely.
Market implications
Investors should monitor the upcoming NFP release closely, as it will influence dollar momentum and potentially push EUR/USD towards the support level of 1.1100. A confirmed break below this threshold may lead to further bearish positioning against the euro, especially in light of our consensus target at 1.1500.
Risks to this view
A stronger-than-expected NFP release could invalidate the bearish outlook for EUR/USD by bolstering USD confidence and triggering fresh dollar buying. Additionally, any major changes in ECB policy signals could also disrupt the current trend.
Sentiment by currency
USD+EUR JPY~GBP~Composite USD score: +0.65
Sources & References
How we cover this story
Other coverage on this pair
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EUR/USD Price Forecast: Declines below 1.1200 as bearish bias holds below key technical resistance
EUR/USD breaks below 1.1200 technical level ahead of data events; watch for Eurozone retail sales and US nonfarm payroll reactions.