Euro: 1.150 target nears on Fed risk against US Dollar – ING
The EUR/USD pair is approaching the 1.150 target as market sentiment shifts towards bearish USD positioning amid ongoing Federal Reserve policy uncertainty. ING's call highlights a growing consensus in the market that suggests potential for continued euro strength against the dollar. As the pair currently trades at 1.1446, it illustrates a clear movement towards this target level, signaling trader expectations are aligning with the euro's bullish outlook, particularly as economic indicators start to favor the Eurozone in the near term.
Where it sits in our coverage
Our current consensus EUR/USD target stands at 1.1700 (median across multiple firms), with forecasts ranging from a low of 1.1200 to a high of 1.2000. ING's view closely aligns with the upper forecasts from firms like RBC and CIBC which also reflect a positive outlook on euro strength against the dollar.
How firms align
Specific firms such as SocGen and Nomura are projecting targets of 1.1700 and 1.1800 respectively for March 2026 which align with ING's bullish tone. Conversely, other firms like Danske Bank are less optimistic, predicting a lower target of 1.1200 for the same tenor, indicating some divergence in market sentiment.
What the data shows
Recent revisions from Scotiabank and Mizuho reinforce this bullish trend with targets climbing to 1.1734 and 1.1800 respectively. Our published research also corroborates this theme, as seen in the insights provided in /research/eurusd-ecb-rate-path-2026-09-16, noting the EUR/USD trades below consensus levels indicating value in the pair.
How firms align with this view
Aligned with the headline view
Contrary positioning
Key takeaways
- 01EUR/USD nears 1.150 target, driven by a bearish USD outlook.
- 02Watch for breaks above 1.150 for confirmation of further euro gains.
- 03Risk of Fed policy shift could pivot dollar strength suddenly.
Market implications
Traders should monitor the EUR/USD closely as it approaches the 1.150 mark, particularly in light of upcoming Fed communications. Our consensus number of 1.1700 indicates that the market expects a sustained period of euro strength if the Fed underscores dovish sentiments in the coming weeks.
Risks to this view
Any unexpected signals from the Fed indicating a shift towards tighter monetary policy could invalidate the current bullish euro stance, rapidly reversing USD positioning and potentially sending EUR/USD lower. Market reactions to economic data releases, such as inflation or employment figures, could also pose risks to the euro's upward trajectory.
Sentiment by currency
USD EUR+JPY~GBP~Composite USD score: -0.65
Sources & References
How we cover this story
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