Euro: Bullish trend eyes upper 1.17s against US Dollar – Scotiabank
Scotiabank has identified a bullish trend for the Euro, forecasting an ascent towards the upper 1.17s against the US Dollar. This bullish momentum seems to be driven by weakening technical underpinnings of the USD, suggesting a shift in market sentiment. The EUR/USD pairing currently sits at 1.1446, presenting traders with an opportunity as positive forecasts emerge amid expectations of a continued dovish stance from the Federal Reserve.
Where it sits in our coverage
Our consensus EUR/USD target sits at 1.1700 (median across firms), with banks like RBC and Nomura also sharing targets aligning with Scotiabank's bullish view. Contrastingly, more cautious perspectives can be found among firms like Lloyds and MUFG, positioned lower around 1.1331 and 1.1800, respectively.
How firms align
RBC and Nomura are among those aligning with Scotiabank’s view, with targets of 1.1700 through March 2026, suggesting a consensus build-up towards the upper resistance levels. In contrast, firms like MUFG and Lloyds are on the more conservative side, indicating a divergence in outlook.
What the data shows
Recent revisions indicate upward momentum among contributors, notably Deutsche Bank adjusting their March target to 1.1800, indicating growing optimism. Our research, particularly the consensus check from August 20, highlights that the spot at 1.1677 aligns with anticipations of the Euro’s strength against the Dollar, substantiating the bullish narrative.
How firms align with this view
Aligned with the headline view
Contrary positioning
Key takeaways
- 01EUR/USD targets shift higher, now eyeing 1.1700 as key resistance.
- 02Positive revisions from Deutsche Bank signal strengthening Euro sentiment.
- 03USD weakness persists as Fed's dovish signals keep pressure on the Dollar.
Market implications
Traders should monitor the 1.1700 resistance level closely, as a break above could lead to further strength in the Euro. Upcoming economic data releases, including US inflation figures, may serve as a catalyst for increased volatility.
Risks to this view
Should the Federal Reserve adopt a more aggressive tightening stance, or if economic indicators surprise positively for the USD, this could invalidate the bullish Euro outlook, prompting a potential reversal toward lower levels.
Sentiment by currency
USD EUR+JPY~GBP~Composite USD score: -0.65
Firms mentioned
Sources & References
How we cover this story
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Cross-firm research
EUR/USD Consensus Check: Spot at 1.1677 vs 1.16 Median — Week of August 20, 2026
EUR/USD trades at 1.1677, roughly 0.66% above the 30-firm Dec-26 median of 1.16, with a 0.14 spread separating Nordea from Citi.
EUR/USD Consensus Check: Spot at 1.1665 vs 1.16 Median, Week of August 19, 2026
EUR/USD spot sits 0.56% above the 30-firm Dec-26 median of 1.16, with a 0.14 dispersion range signalling meaningful disagreement on the dollar path.
EUR/USD Consensus Check: Spot at 1.1575, Median Target 1.16 — Week of August 18, 2026
With EUR/USD spot at 1.1575 and the 30-firm median Dec-26 target at 1.16, consensus and market are nearly aligned — but a 0.14 dispersion range tells a more fractured story.