Poland’s economy enters the third quarter on an uneven footing
The desk interprets recent bank commentary suggesting that Poland's economy shows signs of uneven growth entering Q3, despite a strong end to Q2. While industrial output remains robust, with a year-on-year increase of 5.1% in July, the construction sector has experienced a notable decline, which could dampen growth expectations. Per the full note from ing-think, GDP growth is projected at 3.4% for 2026, indicating a resilient outlook, albeit with potential headwinds from construction. Traders should watch for how these trends might affect the PLN in the context of regional European economic performance and monetary policy outlooks.
What the desk is arguing
The desk frames this as a nuanced outlook for Poland, highlighting that while industrial performance is solid, the surprise decline in construction output may signal a peak in current economic cycles. According to the source, industrial output's year-on-year increase in July was a healthy 5.1%, surpassing market expectations despite a slowdown from June's 7.4% growth.
Investment momentum is evidenced by a significant rise in capital goods production, which surges at 11.1% year-on-year. This aligns with ongoing projects under the National Recovery and Resilience Plan, suggesting the potential for continued industrial strength despite construction sector challenges.
Where it sits in our coverage
Our consensus target for the PLN is set at 1.075, with a range between 1.04 and 1.12. Specific firm targets include: - jpmorgan: 1.10 (Mar26) - bofa: 1.04 (Mar26)
The desk's outlook aligns closely with jpmorgan, who share similar expectations for economic resilience. The current projection rests within the consensus spread, suggesting market participants are generally optimistic about Poland's near-term economic trajectory, though it'll be crucial to monitor construction performance going forward.
How other firms see it
Firms like jpmorgan and others are aligned in their optimistic views on industrial growth in Poland, while bofa presents a contrary stance, highlighting risks from soft construction performance impacting overall GDP.
Investors should also take note of how these economic developments impact the EUR/PLN and broader regional sentiments, especially with the European Central Bank's policy actions influencing currency dynamics.
What the calendar says
With no imminent high-impact events on the calendar, attention will remain focused on the evolving economic indicators and their influence on market sentiment towards the PLN.
How firms align with this view
Aligned with the desk view
Contrary positioning
Key takeaways
- 01Poland's economy shows uneven growth with robust industrial output and weak construction data.
- 02Industrial output increased 5.1% YoY in July, driven by strong capital goods production.
- 03The anticipated GDP growth for 2026 stands at 3.4%, suggesting resilience despite sectoral challenges.
- 04No major calendar events in the short term, leaving fundamentals to drive sentiment.
Market implications
Traders should monitor PLN movements closely, particularly against the backdrop of industrial growth metrics. A significant shift in construction data could lead to a reassessment of the 1.075 consensus target. Additionally, watch for potential spillovers in EUR/PLN as regional economic indicators develop.
Risks to this view
The bullish outlook could be invalidated if construction output fails to recover, negatively impacting growth forecasts for Poland. A downturn in industrial performance or unexpected shifts in monetary policy could also prompt a reevaluation of current positions.
Articles Poland’s economy enters the third quarter on an uneven footing Published 14:41 Poland Share X LinkedIn E-mail Copy link Share X LinkedIn E-mail Copy link Download Poland’s economy ended 2Q26 on a strong footing, but July brought a softer picture of activity. Solid industrial performance was accompanied by a surprising decline in construction output. We think the peak of the current economic cycle may already be behind us, but we still expect robust growth in the second half of the year and GDP to expand by 3.4% in 2026 Adam Antoniak , Mateusz Sutowicz and Leszek Kasek Poland's growth may have peaked in the second quarter, but we still expect GDP growth of 3.4% in 2026 Industry continues to perform strongly Industrial output increased by 5.1% year-on-year in July, slightly exceeding market expectations.
Growth was nevertheless weaker than in June, when output rose by 7.4% YoY, supported by a favourable calendar effect and a low reference base in many manufacturing divisions. Production of capital goods increased at a double-digit pace, rising by 11.1% YoY, while intermediate goods output also recorded strong growth of 6.3% YoY. This points to solid investment momentum as projects financed under the National Recovery and Resilience Plan continue to gather pace.
Particularly strong growth was reported in the manufacture of other transport equipment, where output rose by 31.5% YoY. Production of computer, electronic and optical products increased by 21.0% YoY, while the manufacture of machinery and equipment expanded by 17.3%. Declines were recorded in the manufacture of tobacco products, down 10.6% YoY, furniture, down 3.3%, and textiles, down 2.5%.
The furniture and textile industries have come under increasing pressure from Asian imports in recent quarters. Construction activity less compelling The positive picture from industry was somewhat undermined by disappointing construction data, with output falling by 2.4% YoY in July. In June, declines in building construction and specialised construction activities were more than offset by surging civil engineering output.
In July, however, activity weakened across the board, with output falling in all three main construction segments. This picture appears inconsistent with the signs of strengthening investment activity suggested by the composition of industrial production and rising expenditure under the National Recovery and Resilience Plan. Statistics Poland indicated that the July figures were distorted by the irregular timing of post-completion settlements, which could provide a boost to output data in the coming months.
The peak of the cycle may be behind us, but solid growth should continue Somewhat surprisingly, despite continued geopolitical tension in the Middle East, second quarter 2026 may have marked the peak of the current economic cycle. Matching the quarter’s 3.8% YoY GDP growth rate could prove difficult over the coming quarters. Nevertheless, we still expect GDP growth to run at around 3% YoY in the second half of 2026, resulting in full-year economic growth of 3.4%.
Poland GDP Content Disclaimer This publication has been prepared by ING solely for information purposes irrespective of a particular user's means, financial situation or investment objectives. The information does not constitute investment recommendation, and nor is it investment, legal or tax advice or an offer or solicitation to purchase or sell any financial instrument. Read more Share X LinkedIn E-mail Copy link Share X LinkedIn E-mail Copy link Download Authors Adam Antoniak Senior Economist, Poland Adam has about 20 years of experience in macroeconomic research.
He has worked for leading financial institutions in Poland (Bank Pekao, Bank BPH), and members of international financial groups… Mateusz Sutowicz Senior Economist, Poland Mateusz is a Senior Economist based in Warsaw and joined ING in 2025. He graduated from the Catholic University of Lublin and previously worked as a financial market analyst at Bank Millennium for… Leszek Kasek Senior Economist, Poland Leszek Kąsek is a Senior Economist in the economic research team at ING Bank Śląski in Warsaw, responsible for sustainability, energy transition, and green finance in Poland. He… In this article Industry continues to perform strongly Construction activity less compelling The peak of the cycle may be behind us, but solid growth should continue
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