Euro: Downside risks against US Dollar into ECB and Fed – ING
The euro is currently facing downside risks against the US dollar as we approach pivotal monetary policy decisions from both the European Central Bank (ECB) and the Federal Reserve. ING highlights this precarious positioning, suggesting that the market sentiment could shift negatively for the euro leading up to these events. With the current spot at 1.1446, traders are eyeing these central bank announcements closely as potential catalysts for shifts in currency trajectories – a trend that bears watching given the varying forecasts from major financial institutions.
Where it sits in our coverage
Our consensus EUR/USD target stands at 1.1700 for March 2026 (median across 12 firms), with RBC projecting the highest target of 1.2000 and Stanchart at the more conservative 1.1400. In contrast, the current market performance shows the euro trailing this expectation, entering a critical phase as we prepare for central bank communications.
How firms align
ING's perspective is cautiously aligned with the market, anticipating a near-term target of 1.1700 for March 2026, paralleling the median consensus. However, firms like HSBC and Stanchart remain more cautious, with targets set at 1.1700 and 1.1400 respectively, indicating a diverse outlook across major players. For further insights, refer to our internal reports /research/eurusd-ecb-rate-path and /research/ecb-decision-preview-2026-09-10.
What the data shows
Recent revisions have indicated movements in forecasts, with firms like Mizuho and UBS still holding optimistic views (1.1800 and 1.2000 respectively), though compared to the current spot, the sentiment appears fragile. This juxtaposition raises questions about whether the euro's performance will align with these higher expectations or falter, as evidenced in /research/eurusd-ecb-rate-path-2026-09-08.
How firms align with this view
Aligned with the headline view
Contrary positioning
Key takeaways
- 01The euro trades at 1.1446, below the consensus target of 1.1700 for March 2026.
- 02Caution prevails as traders assess forthcoming ECB and Fed decisions.
- 03Downside risks remain prominent; EUR/USD below 1.1500 could trigger further selling.
- 04Divergence in firm forecasts highlights uncertainty in market sentiment.
Market implications
Attention will focus on the ECB meeting's outcome on September 10, which could determine the euro's direction ahead of the Fed's policy discussion. A failure to reach or exceed the 1.1700 consensus could pave the way for test levels below 1.1400.
Risks to this view
Should the ECB signal a hawkish shift while the Fed remains dovish in their rhetoric, it could lead to a significant euro appreciation, invalidating the current cautious outlook. Moreover, if inflation data surprises positively for the eurozone, this could shift sentiment rapidly.
Sentiment by currency
USD+EUR JPY~GBP~Composite USD score: +0.65
Sources & References
How we cover this story
Other coverage on this pair
EUR/USD Weekly Forecast: To hike or not to hike? Kevin Warsh between a rock and a hard place
Euro steadies against US Dollar after volatile reaction to US CPI
EUR/USD Price Forecast: Likely find direction after US CPI data
Euro: Downside risks while 1.1585 holds against US Dollar – UOB
EUR/USD 1.1585 support breach would signal resumption of downtrend; monitor for break below key technical level.
Bank desks on this topic
FOMC preview: Fed set to hike 25bp in recalibration move
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Bank of Japan preview: 25bp hike incoming
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FX Daily: CPI can seal the deal on a Fed hike
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Cross-firm research
EUR/USD Consensus Check: Spot at 1.1604, Median Target 1.17 — Week of September 11, 2026
EUR/USD spot sits 0.82% below the 30-firm median Dec-26 target of 1.17, with a 0.14-handle dispersion pointing to unresolved macro disagreement.
European Central Bank raised rates to 2.50% — Euro path hinges on ECB's next signal, not today's move
On 2026-09-10, the European Central Bank raised its policy rate to 2.50% from 2.25%. Here is where the major banks now see the currency heading.
Fed Rate Decision Preview — September 16, 2026: Street Targets 1.17
EUR/USD trades at 1.1640, a 0.51% discount to the 30-firm Dec-26 consensus of 1.17, with a 0.14 spread separating Nordea from Citi.