Euro: Downtrend slows but further lows possible against US Dollar – UOB
The Euro's downtrend against the US Dollar appears to be losing momentum, yet it remains vulnerable to further declines, as noted by UOB. While the recent slowdown may indicate a consolidation phase, the prevailing bearish sentiment continues to overshadow it. This situation warrants attention, particularly as the Euro trades significantly below market consensus levels, indicating divergence in expectations among analysts.
Where it sits in our coverage
Our consensus EUR/USD target is currently at 1.1634 (median across multiple firms), with targets ranging from as low as 1.1000 to as high as 1.2200. Notably, the positions align closely with the current Euro levels, reflecting mixed sentiment as firms evaluate potential movements in the upcoming months.
How firms align
Despite UOB's caution, several firms are still projecting stronger targets for the Euro, with Rabobank suggesting 1.1759 for March 2026, while TMGM is markedly more bearish at 1.1447. [Rabobank and Societe Generale's reports](https://ourinternalcoverage/reports/rabobank) reflect optimism that counters the UOB assessment, although the broader market sentiment remains bearish.
What the data shows
Recent revisions indicate a division among analysts, with notable downgrades from Citi and BofA, placing the March 2026 target at 1.1300. This aligns with our previous research, which indicated that "EUR/USD currently trades approximately 3.6% below December 2026 consensus levels" and suggests potential downside risks ahead.
How firms align with this view
Aligned with the headline view
Contrary positioning
Key takeaways
- 01UOB signals that the Euro could hit fresh lows against the Dollar.
- 02Focus remains on key support levels as trends stabilize.
- 03Market sentiment heavily weights towards a bearish EUR outlook.
- 04Potential for divergence persists among analyst targets; watch for shifts.
Market implications
Traders should monitor the 1.1200 level closely as a potential breaking point for the EUR/USD pair. Upcoming central bank communications and economic data releases will be critical in shaping market perceptions and expectations ahead of the December consensus.
Risks to this view
A reversal could occur if the ECB signals a more hawkish stance than anticipated or if economic indicators suggest robust growth in the Eurozone, leading to an upward revision in Euro targets from major firms.
Sentiment by currency
USD+EUR JPY~GBP~Composite USD score: +0.65
Sources & References
How we cover this story
Other coverage on this pair
Euro: Political risks keep EUR under pressure against US Dollar – MUFG
Elevated eurozone political risk narrows the valuation case for EUR, creating technical support levels worth monitoring on EUR/USD dips.
Euro: Downside risks with 1.1100 in sight against US Dollar – ING
ING identifies 1.1100 as target on EUR/USD downside, signaling consensus bearish positioning on euro near-term technicals and fundamentals.
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Morning briefing: EUR/USD is bearish below 1.1300
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Bank desks on this topic
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Cross-firm research
EUR/USD Trades 3.4% Below Dec-26 Consensus as 30-Firm Median Holds 1.1634
EUR/USD spot at 1.1243 sits 3.36% below the 30-firm Dec-26 consensus of 1.1634, with a 0.155 dispersion range signalling deep disagreement on the path ahead.
EUR/USD Consensus Check: Spot at 1.1203, Median Target 1.1634 — Week of October 5, 2026
EUR/USD trades 3.71% below the 30-firm median Dec-26 target of 1.1634, leaving a wide consensus-to-spot gap that demands explanation.
EUR/USD Consensus Check: Spot at 1.1252, Median Target 1.1634 — Week of October 4, 2026
EUR/USD spot sits 3.28% below the 30-firm median Dec-26 target of 1.1634, with a 0.155 dispersion range signalling deep disagreement on the path.