Euro: Downside risks with 1.1100 in sight against US Dollar – ING
ING’s analysis emphasizes heightened downside risks for the euro against the US dollar, projecting a target of 1.1100 for the EUR/USD pair. This aligns with wider market sentiment, which currently reflects a bearish outlook on the euro, as seen in the 0.65 composite sentiment score. The euro is trading near 1.1253, indicating pressure to break through key levels, which may influence short-term trading strategies.
Where it sits in our coverage
Our consensus EUR/USD target sits at 1.1634 (median across 12 firms), with Rabobank positioned at the upper bound (1.1759) and BofA at the lower bound (1.1500). ING's target of 1.1700 indicates a more optimistic view compared to its recent bearish stance, possibly reflecting a divergent view that contrasts with the immediate pressures identified in the market.
How firms align
Rabobank and HSBC are relatively optimistic, with forecasts of 1.1759 and 1.1700 for March 2026, respectively. In contrast, TMGM has a notably bearish stance aimed at 1.1447 for the same period. These contrasting views demonstrate a divided sentiment among analysts, highlighting the uncertainty facing EUR/USD moving forward.
What the data shows
Forecasts have seen adjustments recently, with firms like UOB and Citi revising their targets lower, suggesting a consensus shift towards caution. Our recent analysis (/research/eurusd-ecb-rate-path-2026-10-05) supports the notion of divergence as EUR/USD trades significantly below the median consensus of 1.1634.
How firms align with this view
Aligned with the headline view
Contrary positioning
Key takeaways
- 01ING's target of 1.1100 indicates serious downside risks for the euro.
- 02Bearish sentiment strengthens with a composite sentiment score of 0.65.
- 03Key support at 1.1100 could catalyze further selling pressure if breached.
Market implications
Traders should monitor the EUR/USD closely, particularly the 1.1100 level, as a breach could trigger a fresh wave of selling. Upcoming economic data releases from the Eurozone may also impact positioning ahead of the critical consensus target of 1.1634.
Risks to this view
An unexpected positive economic data release from the Eurozone could reverse sentiment, driving the euro higher against the dollar. Additionally, a shift in the Federal Reserve's policy stance could impact dollar strength, potentially invalidating the bearish outlook on EUR/USD.
Sentiment by currency
USD+EUR JPY~GBP~Composite USD score: +0.65
Sources & References
How we cover this story
Other coverage on this pair
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UOB technical assessment flags EUR/USD vulnerability to fresh lows despite deceleration in downtrend momentum.
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Cross-firm research
EUR/USD Trades 3.4% Below Dec-26 Consensus as 30-Firm Median Holds 1.1634
EUR/USD spot at 1.1243 sits 3.36% below the 30-firm Dec-26 consensus of 1.1634, with a 0.155 dispersion range signalling deep disagreement on the path ahead.
EUR/USD Consensus Check: Spot at 1.1203, Median Target 1.1634 — Week of October 5, 2026
EUR/USD trades 3.71% below the 30-firm median Dec-26 target of 1.1634, leaving a wide consensus-to-spot gap that demands explanation.
EUR/USD Consensus Check: Spot at 1.1252, Median Target 1.1634 — Week of October 4, 2026
EUR/USD spot sits 3.28% below the 30-firm median Dec-26 target of 1.1634, with a 0.155 dispersion range signalling deep disagreement on the path.