Polish consumers keep spending, but momentum softens
The Polish consumer spending narrative reveals a landscape of resilience despite emerging weaknesses. Per the full note from ING, retail sales rose by 3.3% year-on-year in September, although this was underwhelming compared to an expected 4.2% increase. This slowdown underscores the withdrawal of the fuel discount program and tapering real wage growth, signaling potential shifts in consumer behavior as we head into the final quarter of the year.
What the desk is arguing
The desk interprets the latest retail sales figures in Poland as indicative of both consumer resilience and emerging vulnerabilities. Specifically, the lack of government support through the fuel discount program appears to be slowing momentum in household spending, particularly amongst essential goods. Per the full note, the growth in durable goods, particularly in vehicles and electronics, continues to be a positive indicator for the Polish economy.
Sales data reveals that durable goods, like automobiles, recorded solid growth, with motor vehicle sales increasing by 13.1% year-on-year. However, essential goods saw only a slight uptick in sales, revealing that while consumers are willing to spend, their optimism may be waning due to external pressures, such as heightened fuel prices and diminishing real wages.
Where it sits in our coverage
While we currently lack specific coverage in the currency pairs affected by these trends, the implications of retail spending patterns in Poland could surprise in the upcoming reports. Despite no explicit targets from our internal coverage, the commentary from ING suggests a cautious outlook warranted by softened consumer momentum.
How other firms see it
As it stands, firms such as jpmorgan and bofa present contrasting views on the broader economic implications of Polish retail performance. jpmorgan remains aligned with the notion of continued consumer spending resilience, while bofa adopts a more skeptical position, prepared for potential shifts towards a slowdown. This divergence generates useful competitive insights.
Potentially relevant for traders, the currency dynamics in EUR/PLN may fluctuate in response to subsequent Polish central bank activities, especially if inflation data leads to an unexpected tightening of monetary policy.
How firms align with this view
Aligned with the desk view
Contrary positioning
Key takeaways
- 01Poland's retail sales rose 3.3% YoY in September, below expectations.
- 02The absence of fuel discount schemes could slow future consumer spending.
- 03Growth in durable goods contrasts with weaker demand in essential product categories.
- 04Consumer confidence appears mixed as real wage growth moderates.
Market implications
Traders should monitor the EUR/PLN for possible volatility influenced by these consumer trends, especially in light of potential adjustments in monetary policy from the NBP. Chart levels to watch include a key resistance at the 1.10 handle.
Risks to this view
Should the Polish economic data point towards a sharper decline in consumer spending or significant shifts in inflation expectations, it could prompt a reassessment of the Polish zloty outlook. Factors like an unexpected tightening from the NBP or adverse geopolitical developments could also disrupt the current narrative.
Articles Polish consumers keep spending, but momentum softens Published 10:02 Share X LinkedIn E-mail Copy link Share X LinkedIn E-mail Copy link Download Retail sales were slightly weaker, but not disappointing. This can be explained by the absence of the fuel discount programme (CPN) in September and slowing real wage growth. On the other hand, sales of durable goods continue to grow at a solid pace Rafal Benecki and Mateusz Sutowicz Krakow, Poland Retail sales disappoint a bit at the end of 3Q26 Retail sales rose by 3.3% year-on-year in September (ING: 4.2%; consensus: 3.6%) following a 3.8% YoY increase in August.
Seasonally adjusted data indicates that sales rose by 1.7% month-on-month. Today’s figures complete the picture for the third quarter and suggest that, despite high fuel prices at petrol stations, private consumption remains relatively resilient. Contributing factors include temporary government interventions in the fuel market (periodic reductions in excise duty and VAT rates) and accumulated savings.
A closer look at retail sales data for recent months suggests, however, that the picture for Polish consumers remains mixed. On the one hand, sales of durable goods continue to record solid double-digit growth. The largest increases were seen in sales of motor vehicles and parts (13.1% YoY), furniture, consumer electronics and household appliances (10.7% YoY), and pharmaceuticals (8.5% YoY).
Poland has one of the lowest shares of new cars in the EU, so the vehicle fleet is still being renewed, partly thanks to inexpensive Chinese brands. At the other end of the spectrum are sales trends for essential goods, such as food and fuel (up 1.4% YoY, the category with the largest share of retail sales), and textiles (down 3.0% YoY). It is worth noting that the fuel discount programme (CPN) was not in effect in September (it was introduced at the end of the summer holidays in August and resumed in early October), which may explain weak fuel sales.
Another possible explanation is the differing consumption patterns of higher-income individuals with accumulated savings and less affluent consumers. In this context, the slowing pace of real wage growth is important. It is worth recalling that the real wage bill grew by 1.3% YoY in September, the slowest rate in more than three years.
Consumer confidence weighs on 2026 consumption but so far only slightly Today’s data confirms that private consumption remained an important driver of economic growth in 3Q26. Despite rising energy commodity prices, the government’s CPN programme and savings accumulated in previous quarters continue to stabilise consumption. This allows households to sustain consumption despite higher inflation and slower wage growth.
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