Euro: Upside bias toward 1.1725 against US Dollar – UOB
The Euro is experiencing an upside bias against the US Dollar, with UOB positing a target of 1.1725, indicating bullish sentiment amid recent consolidation above key support levels. This technical outlook aligns with a growing consensus among market participants who have revised their targets upwards. The move is significant, potentially positioning Euro bulls for gains as the market seeks clarity on rate paths following the ECB's recent communications.
Where it sits in our coverage
Our consensus EUR/USD target currently sits at 1.1700 (median across 12 firms), with the most bullish targets set by Morgan Stanley and UBS at 1.2000, while Lloyds brings the lower boundary at 1.1200. UOB's projection towards 1.1725 suggests that the market might be factoring in continued strength for the Euro if it maintains a position above 1.1700.
How firms align
UOB's view finds support from firms like RBC, which also has a March 2026 target of 1.1700, aligning with the bullish sentiment suggested in the UOB analysis. Conversely, firms like Danske Bank and HSBC remain more cautious, targeting 1.1866 and 1.1700 respectively for March 2026, indicating a more reserved outlook compared to UOB's positioning. See the detailed analysis in our internal reports, specifically /reports/uob and /reports/rbc.
What the data shows
Recent revisions indicate a strong bullish pivot from firms such as UOB and ING, who have adjusted their March 2026 targets upward recently, reinforcing the potential for a bullish move toward the 1.1725 level. Insights from /research/eurusd-ecb-rate-path demonstrate a growing divergence as the market adjusts expectations based on recent ECB communications.
How firms align with this view
Aligned with the headline view
Contrary positioning
Key takeaways
- 01UOB targets 1.1725 for EUR/USD amid bullish consolidation.
- 02A move above 1.1700 could signal further Euro strength.
- 03Market closely watches ECB communications for directional cues.
Market implications
Next, traders should focus on the 1.1700 level as critical support. If EUR/USD maintains this level, it could pave the way for a test of UOB's target at 1.1725. Additionally, upcoming ECB events may provide further insights into rate decisions, affecting Euro positioning.
Risks to this view
A resurgence of USD strength could invalidate the bullish outlook if key economic data releases favor the Greenback, leading to a breach below 1.1700. Watch for signals from the Fed's upcoming meetings that may shift the market sentiment toward the Dollar.
Sentiment by currency
USD EUR+JPY~GBP~Composite USD score: -0.35
Sources & References
How we cover this story
Other coverage on this pair
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