Gold eyes $4,365, Silver targets $70 as the EUR/USD test key resist, CHF Weaker [Video]
The EUR/USD continues to test key resistance levels as the market observes broader USD strength, underscored by recent CHF weakness. Gold and silver prices have drawn attention, with gold aiming for a significant level of $4,365 and silver targeting $70, reflecting potential shifts in investor sentiment. The resilience of the USD could have critical implications for the euro's trajectory, especially with the European Central Bank's policy outlook.
Where it sits in our coverage
Our consensus EUR/USD target currently stands at 1.1583, with the median across the firms ranging from 1.1200 at Danske Bank to 1.2600 at MUFG. This disparity indicates a division in outlook, where Commerzbank and RBC's more bullish targets (1.1900 and 1.1700, respectively) suggest a stronger euro against the current backdrop.
How firms align
Goldman's forecast aligns with the upper bounds, projecting 1.1800 for March while other firms like Bank of America and Standard Chartered reflect a more bearish outlook with targets at 1.1700 and 1.1400, respectively. For further insights, refer to /research/eurusd-ecb-rate-path for an in-depth analysis of the ECB's rate path and its implications on EUR/USD valuation.
What the data shows
Recent revisions highlight a bullish sentiment shift, with BofA and ING adjusting their March targets up to 1.1700, signifying a growing consensus for gradual euro strength. Our published research, particularly /research/eurusd-ecb-rate-path-2026-08-06, offers detailed insights into the evolving landscape of euro expectations.
How firms align with this view
Aligned with the headline view
Contrary positioning
Key takeaways
- 01EUR/USD remains under key resistance as it tests the 1.1400-1.1500 range.
- 02Traders should note the USD's ongoing strength reflected in CHF weakness.
- 03Upcoming ECB decision could trigger volatility—watch for any policy shifts.
- 04Diverging forecasts among firms highlight uncertainty in the euro's outlook.
Market implications
Future movements will hinge on the EUR/USD breaking decisively through the 1.1500 resistance. Additionally, key economic data releases or ECB comments in the coming weeks will be critical in shaping positioning ahead of the March targets that suggest potential upward movement.
Risks to this view
A reversal in the current view could occur if the US economic data weakens, undermining the dollar's strength. Additionally, any unexpected dovish tone from the ECB could prompt a significant adjustment in EUR/USD positioning.
Sentiment by currency
USD+EUR~JPY~GBP~Composite USD score: +0.30
Sources & References
How we cover this story
Other coverage on this pair
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