Euro: Recovery stalls near 1.1550 resistance against US Dollar – Scotiabank
The Euro's recovery against the US Dollar has faltered around the key resistance level of 1.1550, signaling continued selling pressure. As highlighted by Scotiabank, this rejection suggests that sellers remain active, and a break below current support could herald fresh lows. The EUR/USD pair currently trades around 1.1419, with sentiment remaining bearish on the Euro as traders assess economic conditions and interest rate differentials.
Where it sits in our coverage
Our consensus EUR/USD target is 1.1583 (median across ten firms), with Deutsche Bank projecting the upper bound at 1.2500 and MUFG at the lower limit of 1.1800. Scotiabank's emphasis on resistance at 1.1550 aligns closely with our figures, reinforcing the challenge the Euro faces in reclaiming a higher valuation.
How firms align
Goldman, RBC, and Commerzbank are among those with higher targets, specifically 1.1800, 1.1600, and 1.1900, respectively, suggesting a more optimistic outlook that contrasts with the bearish tone from Scotiabank. Meanwhile, firms like MUFG lean towards targets closer to the current levels, indicating a recognition of potential downside risks. For further insights, refer to our internal reports like /research/eurusd-ecb-rate-path-2026-08-06.
What the data shows
Recent forecast revisions from BofA and ING indicate an increasing consensus target of 1.1700 for March 2026, reflecting a slightly optimistic sentiment amid the ongoing resistance challenges. For detailed analysis, see our report at /research/eurusd-ecb-rate-path-2026-08-04.
How firms align with this view
Aligned with the headline view
Contrary positioning
Key takeaways
- 01EUR/USD is faltering at key resistance of 1.1550.
- 02Watch for fresh lows if support levels break.
- 03Imminent catalysts include ECB interest rate decisions.
- 04Market remains bearish overall, despite some bullish targets.
Market implications
Next, traders should watch for price action around the critical 1.1550 level; a breach of current support could lead to increased selling pressure. With our consensus target at 1.1583, volatility around this level is anticipated in the coming sessions.
Risks to this view
A shift in US economic data or a hawkish turn from the Federal Reserve could reverse current bearish sentiment, invalidating the outlook for the Euro. Additionally, unexpected ECB rate adjustments may significantly alter market dynamics.
Sentiment by currency
USD+EUR JPY~GBP~Composite USD score: +0.30
Firms mentioned
Sources & References
How we cover this story
Other coverage on this pair
EUR/USD Price Forecast: Buyers challenge 100-day SMA as momentum turns bullish
Euro: Upside bias needs close above resistance against US Dollar – UOB
Morning briefing: EUR/USD can attempt to test 1.1600
EUR/USD technical setup suggests upside momentum toward 1.1600 resistance, implying near-term USD weakness in the pair.