EUR/USD Price Forecast: Buyers remain in charge above the 200-day SMA
The EUR/USD pair remains buoyant as it hovers above the critical 200-day simple moving average (SMA), indicating sustained bullish sentiment among buyers. This technical posture highlights the market's preference for EUR strength, supported by a recent bearish tilt on the USD. The ability to maintain this level is vital, as a breach could introduce increased selling pressure, potentially reversing the current uptrend.
Where it sits in our coverage
Our consensus target for EUR/USD is currently 1.1700 (median across 13 firms), with Morgan Stanley at the high end of expectations (1.2000) and Lloyds on the lower side (1.1331). The latest sentiment from [PUBLISHER] aligns with this bullish view, reinforcing the outlook of maintaining a position above the 200-day SMA.
How firms align
Morgan Stanley, with a Mar26 target of 1.2000, strongly supports the bullish sentiment seen in the headline. In contrast, Lloyds appears more conservative, projecting a March target of 1.1331, which diverges from the prevailing positive tone. Please see our reports for deeper insights into firm positions, especially the [notes from Morgan Stanley](./reports/morganstanley) and [Lloyds](./reports/lloyds).
What the data shows
Recent forecast revisions show Morgan Stanley raised its target to 1.2000, reflecting heightened optimism. This coincides with insights from our research, including the report on the ECB rate path, which indicates that the EUR has a solid foundation for further gains.
How firms align with this view
Aligned with the headline view
Contrary positioning
Key takeaways
- 01EUR/USD's position above the 200-day SMA signals a retained bullish trend.
- 02Watch for potential long entries if the pair holds above current levels.
- 03A drop below 1.1400 could trigger a shift to a bearish outlook.
- 04Positioning ahead of ECB meetings could add volatility.
Market implications
Traders should monitor the 1.1400 level closely, as a sustained breach below could signal increased short positions. Upcoming ECB meetings on the calendar could also create decisive price action, impacting our consensus target of 1.1700.
Risks to this view
A shift in sentiment due to stronger-than-expected US economic data or an unexpected hawkish turn from the Fed could jeopardize the current bullish outlook. Key employment reports and inflation data will be crucial.
Sentiment by currency
USD EUR+JPY~GBP~Composite USD score: -0.30
Sources & References
How we cover this story
Other coverage on this pair
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