Morning briefing: EUR/USD may rise to 1.1700
The EUR/USD pair is seeing bullish sentiment, with the possibility of reaching 1.1700, as highlighted by recent technical analysis. This positive outlook reflects a broader market belief in the euro's strength against the dollar, particularly in light of shifting monetary policies. The market appears to be pricing in expectations of continued economic recovery in the Eurozone amidst pressures on U.S. monetary policy. However, any bullish momentum may be limited by substantial technical resistance at 1.1700 and the need for fresh macroeconomic catalysts.
Where it sits in our coverage
Our consensus EUR/USD target sits at 1.1700 (median across 11 firms), indicating a clear bullish posture reflecting the market's anticipation of euro strength. Notably, firms like RBC and ING support this view with targets of 1.1700 for March 2026, aligning with the bullish sentiment outlined in [fxstreet.com](https://www.fxstreet.com/).
How firms align
RBC, with a March target of 1.1700, and ING also at 1.1700, are in line with the headline's prediction. Conversely, Lloyds stands at a much lower target of 1.1331 for March 2026, indicating skepticism about achieving the 1.1700 level soon. Our recent reports have examined this divergence extensively.
What the data shows
Recent revisions have seen Deutsche Bank upgrade its March target to 1.1800 from an earlier 1.1700, indicating growing confidence among some analysts in the euro's strength. Further insights are available in our analysis titled /research/eurusd-ecb-rate-path-2026-08-19, where the consensus on euro valuation is deeply examined.
How firms align with this view
Aligned with the headline view
Contrary positioning
Key takeaways
- 01EUR/USD targets suggest upward momentum, with a consensus of 1.1700 for March 2026.
- 02Technical resistance at 1.1700 may limit near-term gains for EUR/USD.
- 03Fresh macroeconomic data releases could drive volatility around current levels.
Market implications
Next moves will hinge on economic data, particularly any indicators from the ECB or Fed that could impact policy direction. The consensus target of 1.1700 remains a key level to watch, as a breach above could signal further gains.
Risks to this view
An unexpected shift in U.S. monetary policy or a downturn in European economic indicators could negate the current bullish sentiment. Should the pair fail to breach 1.1700, it might signal weaker euro demand going forward.
Sentiment by currency
USD EUR+JPY~GBP~Composite USD score: -0.30
Sources & References
How we cover this story
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