Weekly forex forecast: EUR/USD, XAU/USD, GBP/USD, USD/JPY, Bitcoin and more [Video]
The weekly forex forecast covers major pairs including EUR/USD, GBP/USD, and USD/JPY, maintaining a neutral sentiment across the board. As the currency market grapples with upcoming economic data and central bank decisions, traders are seeking clarity on directional bias. This week, the focus is on how these factors could influence currency valuations, particularly amidst ongoing volatility in geopolitics and economic recovery trajectories. Given the current EUR/USD spot at 1.1446, market participants are closely watching potential shifts in expectations regarding monetary policies.
Where it sits in our coverage
Our consensus EUR/USD target sits at 1.1700 (median across multiple firms), reflecting a range from 1.1200 to 1.2000 as firms adjust their outlooks based on recent data. In contrast to the current spot of 1.1446, firms like JPMorgan (1.1800) and HSBC (1.1700) anticipate a stronger euro in the near term, while others like MUFG lean towards a more bullish projection (1.2600 by Jun26).
How firms align
Firms such as JPMorgan and Deutsche Bank are aligned with a projected strengthening of the euro, signaling confidence in upward movement towards their respective targets of 1.1800 in March. Meanwhile, other firms like Mizuho and Investec hold relatively cautious perspectives, with slightly lower targets of 1.1700 and 1.1455 respectively. Their positions can be explored further in our internal reports, such as /reports/jpmorgan and /reports/deutschebank.
What the data shows
Recent consensus adjustments indicate a relatively stable outlook for the euro, with Deutsche Bank recently revising its targets upwards for March to 1.1800 while other firms like ING remain steadfast at 1.1700. For deeper insights, consult our research publications such as /research/eurusd-ecb-rate-path-2026-08-18, highlighting the ongoing divergence in expectations.
How firms align with this view
Aligned with the headline view
Contrary positioning
Key takeaways
- 01EUR/USD currently spots at 1.1446; signals mixed expectations ahead.
- 02Focus on ECB's next moves could shift consensus targets upward.
- 03Watch for euro strength against USD if targets align at 1.1700 and above.
- 04Recent revisions suggest firms remain cautiously optimistic on euro prospects.
Market implications
Traders should monitor the EUR/USD approaching the 1.1700 level, as it could denote a shift in momentum if breached. Upcoming economic releases and ECB policy statements in the coming weeks will be crucial for shaping market sentiment and positioning. Our consensus stands as a reference point against current trends.
Risks to this view
A significant turnaround could occur if inflation data comes in above expectations, prompting a hawkish response from the Fed that strengthens the USD. Additionally, unexpected geopolitical developments could shift market sentiment, causing volatility in Euro pairs.
Sentiment by currency
USD~EUR~JPY~GBP~Composite USD score: +0.00
Sources & References
How we cover this story
Other coverage on this pair
Euro: Extends rebound as yields stabilize against US Dollar - Danske Bank
EUR/USD rebound supported by yield stabilization narrows carry advantage differential; watch for bond market repricing if ECB hawkishness persists.
EUR/USD Price Forecast: Gathers strength above 1.1550, bullish outlook remains intact
EUR/USD consolidation above 1.1550 suggests continuation of recent strength; watch for break toward 1.1600 as next technical confluence.