Morning briefing: EUR/USD may trade in the 1.1350-1.1420 region
The EUR/USD pair is currently trading at 1.1419, within the projected range of 1.1350-1.1420 outlined by FXStreet. This narrow range reflects a market adjusting to anticipated ECB and Fed decisions, as the broader sentiment remains neutral across the major currencies. The current spot is a modest deviation from the consensus target of 1.1525 for December, indicating some bullish potential but overshadowed by uncertainty surrounding economic indicators and central bank policies.
Where it sits in our coverage
Our consensus EUR/USD target sits at 1.1525 (median across firms), with Commerzbank at the upper bound (1.2200) and MUFG at the lower (1.1800). While FXStreet's forecast suggests immediate stability, our outlook implies a slightly more optimistic trajectory towards year-end.
How firms align
Goldman Sachs and Deutsche Bank are among the more bullish firms, projecting targets of 1.1800 and 1.2500 for March 2026, respectively. Conversely, BofA adopts a more cautious stance with a target of 1.1240 for December 2026, indicating a divergence in expectation around the Euro's strength relative to the USD. For detailed insights, refer to /research/eurusd-ecb-rate-path.
What the data shows
Recent revisions from firms like BofA and HSBC align with a consensus target of 1.1700 for March 2026, which reflects a stabilizing outlook even amidst macroeconomic concerns. The historical context is outlined in /research/eurusd-ecb-rate-path-2026-07-28, which compares current performance against believed consensus levels.
How firms align with this view
Aligned with the headline view
Contrary positioning
Key takeaways
- 01EUR/USD currently trades at 1.1419, near expected range of 1.1350-1.1420.
- 02Expect market positioning around upcoming ECB and Fed meetings.
- 03A break above 1.1420 could confirm bullish sentiment towards the consensus.
- 04Short-term views remain divided, with targets ranging from 1.1240 to 1.2500.
Market implications
Traders should monitor the 1.1420 resistance level closely; a sustained break above this could indicate upward momentum. The upcoming Fed rate decision on July 29 may also influence positioning, with our consensus target at 1.1525 remaining critical in the medium term.
Risks to this view
This view could be invalidated if the Fed surprises the market with a hawkish stance or if economic data surprises to the downside. Below 1.1350, momentum could shift sharply against a bullish outlook, prompting sell signals.
Sentiment by currency
USD~EUR~JPY~GBP~Composite USD score: +0.00
Sources & References
How we cover this story
Other coverage on this pair
Euro: Softer Fed signals may lift EUR against US Dollar – Commerzbank
Fed pivot signals reduce real rate differentials, creating technical support for EUR/USD above recent lows.
Euro edges higher against US Dollar, focus is on Fed's policy
Euro: Softer Fed signals may lift EUR against US Dollar - Commerzbank
Dovish Fed pivot narrows rate differential, reducing near-term carry advantage that has underpinned USD strength.