Weekly forex forecast: EUR/USD, XAU/USD, GBP/USD, USD/JPY, Bitcoin and more [Video]
In this week's forex forecast, the focus remains on major currency pairs, notably the EUR/USD and USD/JPY, both indicating neutral sentiment as the market awaits fresh economic data. The EUR/USD currently sits at 1.1373, with a wide consensus target for March 2026 averaging 1.1700. This divergence between current pricing and future expectations highlights underlying volatility potential, especially given economic uncertainties around central bank policies.
Where it sits in our coverage
Our consensus EUR/USD target sits at 1.1700 (median across firms), with firms like CIBC projecting an ambitious 1.1866, while Mizuho remains more conservative at 1.1300. This reflects a notable divergence where institutional expectations vary widely but generally trend upwards over the coming quarters.
How firms align
Mizuho and Investec’s conservative targets for March (1.1300 and 1.1455 respectively) place them within the lower tier of forecasts, while firms like Commerzbank (1.1900) and RBC (1.1600) suggest more optimism. Notably, CIBC stands out with a target of 1.1866 for March, potentially aligning with forthcoming economic indicators supporting a stronger Euro. For detailed views, see our analysis on these firms: /reports/mizuho, /reports/investec, /reports/commerzbank.
What the data shows
Recent forecast revisions from UBS (1.2000 for March) contrast sharply with more conservative estimates like those from Lloyds (1.1331). Our published research, particularly /research/eurusd-ecb-rate-path-2026-11-06, discusses the implications of the current EUR/USD spot price at 1.1142 compared to the median target of 1.145, indicating a bullish sentiment brewing beneath the surface.
How firms align with this view
Aligned with the headline view
Contrary positioning
Key takeaways
- 01EUR/USD at 1.1373 shows room for appreciation towards expected targets.
- 02FX traders should monitor central bank signals; divergence suggests potential volatility.
- 03A bullish breakout for EUR/USD hinges on crossing 1.145 to align with upper forecasts.
Market implications
Next week’s U.S. economic data releases, along with ECB communications, will be critical in determining the EUR/USD trajectory. Watch for the consensus target of 1.1700 and any shifts in central bank rhetoric that may impact positioning in this pair.
Risks to this view
Any signs of a sudden pivot from the Fed towards tighter policy could invalidate this bullish outlook for EUR/USD. Additionally, a significant deterioration in Eurozone economic data could hinder upward movements, particularly if targets revised downward significantly.
Sentiment by currency
USD~EUR~JPY~GBP~Composite USD score: +0.00
Sources & References
How we cover this story
Other coverage on this pair
EUR/USD Price Forecast: Fears of aggressive Fed tightening lift US Dollar
Market repricing Fed tightening expectations as growth and inflation narratives shift; monitor breakout below 1.1200 for sustained EUR/USD weakness.
EUR/USD outlook: Recovery continues to face headwinds at the multi-week range ceiling
EUR/USD recovery testing multi-week range resistance; break-above required to confirm sustained euro strength versus downside retest risk.
EUR/USD: Range-bound then recovering – ING
French political uncertainty sustaining EUR risk premium through Q1; range 1.10–1.15 implies USD structural bid into April elections.