On this page · 4 sections▾
AUD/USD spot sits at 0.7030 as of the week of September 25, 2026 — approximately 0.99% below the cross-firm Dec-26 consensus median of 0.71, according to the full AUD/USD bank forecast table. Across 24 contributing desks, the range runs from 0.67 to 0.75, an 8-cent dispersion that reflects genuine disagreement over the RBA-Fed rate path, China's demand trajectory, and commodity price momentum.
Key Numbers
- Live spot (Sep 25, 2026): 0.7030
- Cross-firm consensus median (Dec-26): 0.71
- Dispersion (max − min): 0.08 (0.67–0.75)
- Gap, spot vs consensus: −0.99% (spot well below median)
- Most bullish: Scotiabank and Standard Chartered at 0.75
- Most bearish: Citi at 0.67
Where Do the 24 Desks Stand?
| Firm | Dec-2026 target | Stance |
|---|---|---|
| J.P. Morgan | 0.68 | bullish |
| BNP Paribas | 0.68 | bullish |
| Bank of America | 0.70 | bullish |
| Goldman Sachs | 0.70 | bullish |
| MUFG | 0.70 | bullish |
| Morgan Stanley | 0.71 | bullish |
| UOB | 0.712 | neutral |
| Société Générale | 0.712 | bullish |
| Deutsche Bank | 0.72 | bullish |
| Rabobank | 0.72 | neutral |
| UBS | 0.73 | bullish |
| Crédit Agricole | 0.73 | neutral |
| Scotiabank | 0.75 | neutral |
| Standard Chartered | 0.75 | bullish |
Why Does the RBA-Fed Gap Define the Range?
The dominant structural variable for AUD/USD into year-end is the interest-rate differential between the Reserve Bank of Australia and the Federal Reserve. The Fed's easing cycle, which accelerated through mid-2026, has compressed the yield premium that had previously anchored the dollar. Where desks diverge is on the pace of RBA cuts relative to the Fed's terminal rate: those pricing a shallower RBA easing path — or a Fed that pauses earlier — tend to carry higher AUD/USD targets.
Deutsche Bank at 0.72 and UBS at 0.73 sit in the upper-middle of the distribution; both embed a scenario where the RBA holds longer than the Fed, widening the spread in AUD's favour. At the other end, J.P. Morgan and BNP Paribas each target 0.68 — both carry bullish stances relative to their own spot references, but their absolute targets remain the lowest among the 14 recently updated desks, implying a more cautious view on how far the RBA-Fed gap can widen by December.
The rate-spread regime each desk prices is the clearest fault line in the 0.08 dispersion. Firms anchored to a Fed that resumes cuts in Q4 2026 tend to cluster between 0.72 and 0.75. Those pricing a Fed pause or a RBA catch-up cut lean toward the 0.68–0.70 band.
How Much Does China and Iron Ore Matter to the Outlook?
AUD/USD carries a well-documented commodity beta, with iron ore the most direct transmission channel from Chinese demand to the Australian terms of trade. The pair's sensitivity to Chinese PMI prints and steel output data has, if anything, increased in 2026 as the RBA's policy flexibility has narrowed.
Desks with the most constructive China views — or those pricing a fiscal stimulus impulse from Beijing in H2 2026 — tend to sit at the top of the target distribution. Scotiabank at 0.75 and Standard Chartered at 0.75 are the joint ceiling; both incorporate a recovery in bulk commodity demand that would support Australian export revenues and, by extension, the current account. Société Générale at 0.712 and Morgan Stanley at 0.71 sit near the consensus median, reflecting a more measured assumption on Chinese growth momentum — neither a hard-landing scenario nor a strong stimulus-driven rebound.
The commodity beta also explains why spot at 0.7030 is running below the median: iron ore has not delivered the demand-side catalyst that upper-range forecasts require. Until Chinese industrial activity data confirms a durable upturn, the pair is likely to remain in the lower half of the consensus distribution.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the current AUD/USD consensus forecast for December 2026?
The cross-firm median across 24 desks is 0.71 for December 2026, with spot at 0.7030 as of September 25, 2026 — a gap of approximately 0.99%.
Which bank has the highest AUD/USD target and which has the lowest?
Scotiabank and Standard Chartered share the top target at 0.75; Citi holds the lowest at 0.67, producing an 8-cent dispersion across the full 24-firm panel.
How wide is the disagreement among forecasters?
The max-minus-min dispersion is 0.08, one of the wider ranges in the G10 space, reflecting genuine uncertainty over the RBA-Fed differential, China's growth path, and commodity price direction through year-end.
Is the consensus bias bullish or bearish on AUD/USD?
The implied consensus bias is bullish: the median Dec-26 target of 0.71 sits above current spot at 0.7030, and the majority of recently updated desks carry bullish stances on the pair.
→ See the full Standard Chartered FX outlook for the most bullish published case on AUD/USD into December 2026.
Read next
Firms covered in this article
Bank Forecast
Scotiabank →
Bank Forecast
Bank of America →
Bank Forecast
Uob →
Bank Forecast
Deutsche Bank →
Bank Forecast
Bnpparibas →
Bank Forecast
UBS →
Bank Forecast
Societe Generale →
Bank Forecast
Goldman Sachs →
Bank Forecast
Rabobank →
Bank Forecast
MUFG →
Bank Forecast
JPMorgan →
Bank Forecast
Creditagricole →
Bank Forecast
Stanchart →
Bank Forecast
Morgan Stanley →
Continue tracking AUD/USD
More from AUD/USD
- AUD/USD
AUD/USD Consensus Check: Spot at 0.7012, Dec-26 Median 0.71 — Week of September 24, 2026
AUD/USD trades at 0.7012, roughly 1.24% below the 24-firm Dec-26 median of 0.71, with an unusually wide 0.08 dispersion separating Scotiabank's 0.75 from Citi's 0.67.
- AUD/USD
AUD/USD Dec-2026: Consensus at 0.71, but an 0.08 range splits the pack
AUD/USD trades at 0.7033, roughly 0.94% below the 24-firm Dec-2026 median of 0.71, with an 0.08 spread separating Scotiabank's 0.75 from Citi's 0.67.
- AUD/USD
AUD/USD Consensus Check: Spot at 0.7101, Week of September 23, 2026
AUD/USD trades at 0.7101, virtually on top of the 24-firm Dec-26 median of 0.71, but an 0.08 dispersion range signals deep disagreement beneath the surface.
Share