AfD wins elections in Saxony-Anhalt
The recent elections in Saxony-Anhalt have produced a significant victory for the Alternative für Deutschland (AfD), which captured around 44% of the votes, a dramatic increase from previous elections, signaling substantial political shifts in Germany. As the first of three regional elections this month, this result raises important questions about the potential for the AfD to lead a government. Per the full note , despite this strong showing, the party may not secure an absolute majority, complicating its path to governance and inviting scrutiny on its coalition possibilities.
What the desk is arguing
The AfD's strong performance in the Saxony-Anhalt elections highlights shifting political dynamics within Germany, marking a significant moment for extreme right-wing parties in the region. With a turnout of approximately 80% — up from just 27% in 2021 — the election reflected increased civic engagement, which impacted the traditional party landscape. Per the full note , the AfD's previous federal election performance of 38.8% reinforces the party's upward trajectory.
However, the crucial factor now lies in whether the AfD can assemble a working coalition in a political environment where other parties have ruled out support for them. The BSW's potential entry into parliament will be pivotal, as it could either facilitate an AfD-led government or lead to further political complexities if they fall short of an absolute majority.
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What the calendar says
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Key takeaways
- 01AfD secures around 44% of votes in Saxony-Anhalt, reflecting political shifts.
- 02High voter turnout of 80% illustrates increased civic engagement.
- 03Potential coalition challenges loom for the AfD in forming a government.
Market implications
Watch the impact on political stability within Germany, particularly how this may affect the euro's performance against major currencies. Additionally, monitor sentiment indicators as traders assess potential coalition outcomes and the broader implications for European unity.
Risks to this view
Key risks include the failure of the AfD to garner support from the BSW, which may hinder their ability to govern. Additionally, backlash from other political entities could destabilize the political environment, further complicating governance structures in Germany.
Older quick take Quick take Published 19:06 Germany AfD wins elections in Saxony-Anhalt The AfD won the first regional state election of the three elections this month. Whether Germany could get the first government, led by an extreme right-wing party, remains unclear Ulrich Siegmund, leader of the AfD party in Saxony-Anhalt Share X LinkedIn E-mail Copy link Share X LinkedIn E-mail Copy link Download Carsten Brzeski Global Head of Macro International and national attention for today’s elections in Saxony-Anhalt were huge. A state with some 2.3 million inhabitants drew all the attention as the AfD had been leading the polls for a long while.
The latest polls have been relatively spot on. According to the estimated results, at 8pm CET, the AfD received some 44% of the votes, while the CDU, of the incumbent minister-president, came in at 18%. The Left Party, SPD and Greens all received some 9% each.
The BSW stands close to 5%. Comparisons with the last state election show dramatic changes, with the AfD more than doubling its votes and the CDU losing half of the votes. However, there are some differences with the comparison.
In last year’s federal elections, the AfD came in at 38.8%, while the CDU stood at 23.5%. The participation rate in today’s elections was some 80%, compared with 27% in 2021. While the AfD’s victory is clear and is the party’s best performance ever, it remains unclear whether the AfD will be able to lead the next government.
Currently, the AfD falls one seat short in parliament of having an absolute majority. This could still change in the course of the evening until we get the official preliminary results. A lot will now depend on whether the BSW will make it into parliament (remember the German 5%-threshold) as all other parties have ruled out any support for the AfD.
The BSW has been less clear. At the same time, if the AfD stays short of the absolute majority, two options remain: an AfD minority government or a coalition of the rest. Neither option would promise a stable government.
The AfD’s agenda includes speeding up the deportation of undocumented migrants, increasing welfare benefits for native-born Germans, ending sanctions on Russia and German aid to Ukraine, and pulling the country out of the European Union. However, let’s be clear, most of these ideas do not fall under the power of state governments. Many of these are beyond the powers of a state government.
Impact on economy and national politics The next days and weeks will bring lots of speculation about what the win of the AfD will mean for the German economy. Sure, there could be a symbolic impact on foreign investors, but let’s not forget that Saxony-Anhalt is not the entire German economy. Therefore, let’s wait with in terms of this speculation until a government has been formed.
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